Quantcast
Channel: Celebrity Real Estate – Redfin Real-Time
Viewing all 443 articles
Browse latest View live

New Year, New House? Here’s How to Prepare for the 2018 Market

0
0
DC+MD_11690 Main St - Ashburn VA_edit

Tips for Sellers

1. Declutter and Organize

“After the holidays is a great time to clear out all the things you no longer need,” says Redfin Charleston agent Tammy Trenholm. “Decide what you want to keep and then pack and store anything you don’t immediately need at your new place. Be sure to organize your closets and pantries so they are tidy. This will help showcase your storage space.”

2. Paint Inside and Out

“First impressions mean everything. Make sure interior rooms are freshly painted with a neutral color,” said Trenholm. “The exterior should be power-washed and painted if needed; often the front door can use a fresh coat of paint or stain, too.”

3. Make Updates to Increase Your Home’s Value

You should talk to your agent about small changes you can make that might have a big impact on buyers, says Redfin Washington D.C. agent Chelsea Traylor. Updates like a kitchen backsplash or new hardware throughout the house can leave a lasting impression.

“The more value a buyer sees in a property, the greater the chances that one or more buyers will make an offer at your list price, if not more,” says Traylor.

4. Talk to and Collaborate With Your Neighbors

“If you have nearby neighbors, buyers will likely be curious about how well your neighbors keep up their homes,” says Traylor. “If you share a hallway or lawn, let your neighbors know of your plans to sell and kindly ask them to tidy up. A speedy and profitable sale for you only means great things for your neighbors when they decide to sell.”

5. Figure Out the Right Time to Sell

Sellers tend to think they need to wait until spring in order to sell quickly, but in many markets that’s not the case, says Redfin Phoenix agent Raegan Kraft.

“Homes sell well year round in the Phoenix area; there are  more sales in the spring and summer months. But because there are more buyers at that time, there are also more sellers and more competition,” she said. “Ultimately, sellers should sell at the time that makes the most sense for them. The beginning of 2018 is a great time to list, as buyers left over from 2017 have exhausted the limited inventory, and new buyers will begin looking as well.”

6. Price Your Home to Sell

“Look at key market indicators such as recent sales, pricing trends and inventory to guide you to the best listing price,” says Traylor. “Be cautious of overpricing and underpricing. Overpricing could scare off potential buyers who may think a seller isn’t being realistic, while underpricing means that you as a seller could leave money on the table. Redfin agents use a tech-powered comparative market analysis tool to help guide sellers to the right price. Work with your agent to develop the right pricing strategy so that your list price is either at or slightly below market value, thereby creating as much interest as possible from the buying community.”

Tips for Buyers

1. Limit Credit Card Spending and New Purchases

“Commit to refining your purchasing habits. Reducing credit card use, not opening new credit cards, and avoiding large purchases can all help improve your credit score,” says Miami Redfin agent Jessica Johnson. “Sometimes a difference of a few points can increase your purchase price approval or get you a better rate. What better time to implement new habits than a new year!”

2. Find Out How the New Tax Bill Affects You

“The 2017 tax bill that has been signed into law changes several financial considerations when buying a home, and the conforming loan limit has also been increased,” says Chicago Redfin agent Daniel Close. “There are several changes you will want to acquaint yourself with that buyers in 2017 did not have to consider.”

3. Maximize Savings

“Review your finances and set a monthly budget to start saving up for a down payment, if you haven’t already,” says Redfin San Francisco agent Miriam Westberg. “If you already have a savings account, think about other ways you can add to it. Can you cut monthly expenses somewhere else to offset more savings? Keep upcoming tax payments and/or refunds in mind too!”

4. Get Pre-approved

Many sellers won’t even entertain an offer without a pre-approval letter, says Redfin agent Danielle Parent in Cleveland. So it’s best to find a local lender who has a reputation for closing on time and get pre-approved before you submit an offer.

“The market has been so competitive that I have had sellers request a pre-approval from a local bank. In multiple offer situations, if you have a pre-approval for an FHA loan with 3.5 percent down, you should see if you can qualify for a conventional loan with 5 percent down, as this will make your offer more competitive.”

5. Set Up a Saved Search

“Once you have a general idea of your borrowing ability, jump onto Redfin.com or our app and start setting up saved searches; Redfin will send you a smartphone notification or email when a home that meets your criteria is listed,” said Redfin Seattle agent Allie Howard.

“You can set a price cap and filter by location. If you want your child to go to a specific school, you can filter by that school etc. One thing to keep in mind, however, is that in a strong seller’s market like we have in Seattle, many of the homes will end up selling above list price. So it can be a good exercise to set your search for approximately 10 percent below your price cap to allow some room to escalate up in price if a home you like ends up receiving multiple offers.”

6. Start Exploring in Person and Online

It’s good to check out different neighborhoods to get an idea of what you’re looking for, says Westberg. Then, look up the neighborhoods you like on Redfin.com and review sold homes to get a sense of sale prices in that area. Once you’re ready, you can start looking at homes.

“We saw a very busy, hot market starting in early 2017, so buyers should plan to hit the ground running,” says Close. “Do your research before February and go see some homes to get the process started. Well-prepared and experienced buyers will have the best chance at success.”

Parent says you should request a tour as soon as you see a home you like hit the market. “The Redfin team can accommodate same-day tours and if it turns out to be ‘the one’, we will be able to place a bid quickly,” she said.

7. Be Creative With Your Search

“While everyone else is looking for the three-bed, two-bath home in the ‘established’ neighborhoods, I believe you can get a better deal on homes that have room to build an extra bedroom or bathroom,” said Redfin agent Gus Sanchez in Portland. “Look for the up-and-coming neighborhoods in your area that are expected to improve and appreciate over the next few years. Renovation financing for ‘fix up’ buyers and creative financing for contingent buyers will also be key in obtaining your goals!”

8. Be Flexible With Sellers

You can make yourself more competitive by accommodating the seller’s needs, says Parent. “I will often ask the listing agent what day the seller prefers to close as this can be a consideration when looking over multiple offers. I have won offers because of my buyer’s willingness to close when the seller needs to. The more accommodating you can make your offer, the more appealing it will be to the seller.”

9. Be Patient 

“Keep at it!” says Parent. “It will take time to find your perfect home but don’t get discouraged. If you lose out on a home or two, it wasn’t meant to be. In most cases, my buyers end up with a better home than the ones they lost bids on. Be patient. It will happen!”

The post New Year, New House? Here’s How to Prepare for the 2018 Market appeared first on Redfin Real-Time.


25 Neighborhoods that “Have It All”: Affordable Homes, Highly Rated Schools, An Easy Commute AND Plenty of Inventory

0
0

The number of homes for sale nationwide has been falling for more than two straight years, and home prices in the hottest markets have risen by double digits in as much time. This has created a conundrum for homebuyers seeking a neighborhood that “has it all”– affordable homes for sale, highly rated schools and an easy commute.

Redfin analysts found just 25 neighborhoods that fit the bill across 80 major U.S. markets. More than half of the neighborhoods on the list are in the Chicago area, the rare major metro area that has remained relatively affordable and has largely bucked the severe inventory shortage trend seen across much of the country over the past few years. Neighborhoods in Pittsburgh, Cleveland, San Antonio, Dallas, Houston and Miami also made the list. These are places to watch in 2018, when we expect last year’s trend in migration from expensive, high-tax coastal markets like San Francisco, Silicon Valley and New York toward smaller, more affordable cities, to intensify.

Rank Zip Code Neighborhood in Zip Code (City) Median Sale Price # of Homes For Sale  (As of December 2017) Median Days on Market School Ranking Transit Score Crime Rate (lower the better)
1 60634 Dunning (Chicago, IL) $  256,000 263 76 6.6 55.4 35
2 60652 Ashburn (Chicago, IL) $  175,000 135 63.5 5.6 55.5 38
3 15217 Squirrel Hill (Pittsburgh, PA) $  272,500 117 72 5 50.4 28
4 60630 Jefferson Park (Chicago, IL) $  275,000 170 60 8 63.8 36
5 60707 Elmwood Park (Chicago, IL) $  250,000 164 62 5 54.1 38
6 60302 Oak Park (Oak Park, IL) $  278,000 167 69 9.4 59.9 38
7 60613 Wrigleyville (Chicago, IL) $  269,000 266 55 7.8 78.6 40
8 60645 West Ridge (Chicago, IL) $  189,000 148 69 8 57.7 44
9 60659 North Park (Chicago, IL) $  226,500 89 81 8.8 53.8 44
10 60202 Evanston (Evanston, IL) $  272,000 111 65 7.5 51.7 40
11 60660 Edgewater (Chicago, IL) $  203,750 144 63.5 6.667 70.7 49
12 61801 Campustown (Urbana, IL) $  122,100 100 80 5 55.8 56
13 77022 Independence Heights (Houston, TX) $  137,000 45 69 5.667 50.5 61
14 60640 Andersonville (Chicago, IL) $  243,000 244 62 5.5 75.8 53
15 60625 Lincoln Square (Chicago, IL) $  285,000 170 61 6.889 62.2 48
16 44120 Shaker Heights (Shaker Heights, OH) $  115,560 171 108.5 7.25 51.9 71
17 33162 North Miami Beach (North Miami Beach, FL) $  220,000 153 59 6 50.9 59
18 60641 Belmont Gardens (Chicago, IL) $  275,000 160 59 5 62.4 49
19 78229 Lafayette Place (San Antonio, TX) $  142,500 59 52 5.5 51.2 75
20 44106 University Circle (Cleveland Heights, OH) $  165,000 71 77 7 55.1 77
21 75203 Cadillac Heights (Dallas, TX) $  205,000 11 538 6.333 52.8 80
22 40507 Speigle Heights (Lexington, KY) $  277,500 9 171 5 55.8 69
23 76102 Fort Worth (Fort Worth, TX) $  259,950 27 59 5 50.0 84
24 35203 Central City (Birmingham, AL) $  270,000 32 66 8 54.7 87
25 45202 Mount Adams (Cincinnati, OH) $  291,000 184 82 5 70.8 83

 

We identified the neighborhoods using the following criteria:

  • Affordability: Zip codes were selected that had a median home sale price below the national median of $291,700*.
  • Home Selling Speed: Several months of falling inventory and strong demand mean the most desirable homes go off the market within days of being listed. Selected zip codes had a median days on market of at least 46**.
  • Highly Rated Schools: Neighborhoods with a GreatSchools rating of 5, which is considered average, or higher were chosen.
  • Transit: Neighborhoods with a Transit Score® of at least 50, indicating many nearby public transportation options, were included.
  • Low Crime Rates: Using crime data from BestPlaces, our ranking favored places with lower reported violent crime.

The new tax bill, which caps state and local tax (SALT) deductions at $10,000, compounds affordability concerns, particularly in the high-tax state of Illinois, home to 14 of the 25 highlighted neighborhoods. Redfin agent Alex Haried in Chicago, says taxes should always be considered when analyzing affordability.

“Our general rule of thumb in Chicago is to set aside about 2 percent of the sale price for local taxes each year,” he said. “These are the same taxes that help the city maintain a world-class transit system and help our schools rank highly, so it’s a necessary evil and a big reason why so many Chicago zip codes made the cut.”

Another theme for areas that ranked highly was access to job centers, which is the case for Squirrel Hill in Pittsburgh.

“Relocators have really taken kindly to Squirrel Hill not only because of the affordability, but also the commute,” said Redfin Pittsburgh agent Jennifer Sowers. “Google, Uber and Carnegie Mellon University are large employers in the area and a short commute away via public transit.”

Methodology: The analysis rated zip codes across 80 markets according to median sale price and median days on market in November according to the Redfin Real-Time Housing Market Tracker, as well as Transit Score from Walk Score® and school ratings from GreatSchools.  The final ranking was determined by ranking zip codes according to each criteria described above, along with crime rates from the “violent crime scale” on BestPlaces.net, and then taking the average of all those rankings to rank order the top 25 zip codes. Local Redfin agents assisted in identifying the neighborhood name that most closely matched each zip code.

*$291,700 was the national median sale price in November 2017

**46 was the national median days on market in November 2017

 

The post 25 Neighborhoods that “Have It All”: Affordable Homes, Highly Rated Schools, An Easy Commute AND Plenty of Inventory appeared first on Redfin Real-Time.

The Most Popular Fitness Trends in All 50 States 

0
0

Americans are pretty passionate about staying fit, but trends take their time working their way across the country. Whether we’re sweating through a one-hour Orangetheory workout, learning Israeli hand-to-hand combat by way of Krav Maga or pedaling away hundreds of calories at SoulCycle, Americans in different states tackle fitness in some really creative – and sometimes off-the-wall (literally) – ways.

We’ve put together a list of the hottest fitness trend in each state and D.C. by analyzing several factors so you know what your neighbors are up to. Yoga, Crossfit, and Peloton are among the most popular workouts in nearly every state, but some are hotbeds of Clubbercise (dancing like nobody’s watching), Jukari (a Cirque du Soleil-inspired workout) and Goat Yoga (which is exactly what it sounds like: yoga with baby goats).

The Most Popular Fitness Trends in All 50 States -Hero

Fitness Trends in Alabama: Bodybuilding

In Alabama, pumping iron is the way to go. People are starting to jump on the Orangetheory train, and Pilates is holding strong.

 

Fitness Trends in Alaska: Yoga

Yoga is the most popular workout for Alaskans, but like it is in Alabama, Orangetheory is gaining a lot of traction on The Last Frontier.

 

Fitness Trends in Arizona: Krav Maga

From Phoenix to Tucson, Arizonans are hitting the Krav Maga studios in droves to learn Israeli hand-to-hand combat techniques and burn up to 600 calories an hour.

 

Fitness Trends in Arkansas: Crossfit

Crossfit is the main mode of fitness in Arkansas, but aerial yoga is popular in Little Rock, the state’s densely populated capital.

The Most Popular Fitness Trends in All 50 States Crossfit

Fitness Trends in California: SoulCycle

SoulCycle is where it’s at in California, but dance fitness workouts – including Zumba – are really popular, particularly in smaller cities.

 

Fitness Trends in Colorado: Orangetheory

Colorado is a hotspot for the super-high-intensity, 60-minute workouts Orangetheory provides, which beats yoga by a tiny margin as the preferred path to fitness in the state.

 

Fitness Trends in Connecticut: Crossfit and Peloton

Crossfit and Peloton classes are tied as the two most popular workouts in Connecticut.

 

Fitness Trends in Delaware: Pilates

People in Delaware are psyched about Pilates, but they’re also sweating off the pounds through Zumba and Jukari Fly Fitness.

 

Fitness Trends in Florida: Aerial Yoga

Most of Florida’s major cities, from Tampa to Miami, have incredibly popular aerial yoga classes. Exotic fitness is also trending, which is a narrow subset of dance fitness.

 

Fitness Trends in Georgia: Fitness Apps

Georgians set record numbers for Google searches for “fitness apps,” so in addition to hitting the gym, they’re rocking their own workouts at home.

The Most Popular Fitness Trends in All 50 States - App

Fitness Trends in Hawaii: Celebrity Workouts and Hooping

Hawaiians keep things trendy by following proven celebrity workouts and hooping – an intense, hour-long ab workout that can burn up to 400 calories an hour.

 

Fitness Trends in Idaho: Crossfit

In Idaho, Crossfit is by far the most popular workout trend – but Orangetheory is right behind it, bringing droves of high-intensity junkies into the fold.

 

Fitness Trends in Illinois: SoulCycle

Chicago is the place to be if you’re into SoulCycle, Jillian Michaels workouts or Clubbercise (or all three), which are popular all over Illinois.

 

Fitness Trends in Indiana: ARX

ARX (short for adaptive resistance exercise), which uses computer-controlled, motorized resistance to shorten workout time and maximize impact, is really popular in Indiana. (NASA also uses ARX machines as part of astronauts’ training programs.)

 

Fitness Trends in Iowa: Daily Burn

Iowans get their fitness fixes from Daily Burn, a streaming service that lets users choose the perfect workout with live, experienced trainers.

 

Fitness Trends in Kansas: HIIT and LISS

Kansas is divided between high-intensity interval training, or HIIT, and low-intensity steady state training, or LISS, which includes jogging, trampoline-jumping and stair-climbing.

The Most Popular Fitness Trends in All 50 States HIIT

Fitness Trends in Kentucky: Tabata

Tabata, a form of HIIT training that consists of eight rounds of 20 seconds “on” and 10 seconds “off” exercises, is where it’s at in Kentucky – except in Louisville, where hooping is more popular.

 

Fitness Trends in Louisiana: AcroYoga

All over Louisiana, beginners and experts are coming together in acrobatic partner yoga (AcroYoga for short) because it’s the latest-and-greatest way to de-stress and increase mobility.

 

Fitness Trends in Maine: Daily Burn

Daily Burn, the latest-and-greatest streaming trend, is just as popular in Maine as it is in Iowa.

 

Fitness Trends in Maryland: Krav Maga

Krav is sweeping across Maryland and available in a few different formats at martial arts dojos and MMA studios across the state.

 

Fitness Trends in Massachusetts: SoulCycle

In addition to yoga and Crossfit, the two most popular workouts in Massachusetts, SoulCycle is attracting thousands of people from Boston to Cambridge.

 

Fitness Trends in Michigan: Tabata and Daily Burn

Tabata and Daily Burn are tied in Michigan overall for the hottest workouts, but Tabata takes the lead in Ann Arbor while Daily Burn is more popular in Detroit.

 

Fitness Trends in Minnesota: Aerial Yoga

Aerial yoga, which combines traditional yoga, Pilates, dance and a hammock, is a huge deal in Minnesota.

Fitness Trends in Mississippi: MetCon

Short for metabolic conditioning, MetCon is a high-intensity workout that’s often used in Crossfit and Orangetheory – and it’s incredibly popular all over the state.
 

Fitness Trends in Missouri: TRX

TRX suspension training, which is based on seven basic movements, is Missouri’s thing, Workouts range from easy for beginners to super-tough for professional athletes.

 

Fitness Trends in Montana: Foam Roller Workouts

Foam rolling was just a warmup, but now it’s an entire workout regimen in Montana, where group fitness classes for rollers abound.

 

Fitness Trends in Nebraska: Back Workouts

Baby got back – actual back – in Nebraska, where people are lining up for specific muscle-group workouts to ditch flab (ab workouts earn an honorable mention in Omaha, specifically).

 

Fitness Trends in Nevada: AcroYoga

Acrobatic yoga is sizzling from the Strip to Reno, where practitioners perform a huge range of acrobatic moves in strength and endurance training.

 

Fitness Trends in New Hampshire: Jump Rope Workouts and Goat Yoga

People in New Hampshire are on the prowl for new jump rope workout routines, but perhaps more importantly, they’re doing goat yoga. Ordinary yoga + baby goats = big win.

The Most Popular Fitness Trends in All 50 States jump rope

Fitness Trends in New Jersey: TRX

TRX is incredibly popular in The Garden State, which is teeming with boutique studios offering other HIIT workouts such as Orangetheory and Crossfit.

 

Fitness Trends in New Mexico: 22-Day Ab Workout

People all over the Land of Enchantment are rocking the 22-Day Ab Workout to melt away muffin tops.

 

Fitness Trends in New York: SoulCycle

Manhattan is a SoulCycle mecca, but all over New York State, yoga and its variants – aerial yoga, rope yoga and Bikram – are extremely popular.

 

Fitness Trends in North Carolina: Aerial Yoga

North Carolinians are swinging and swaying in aerial yoga (also known as anti-gravity yoga) studios all over the state.

 

Fitness Trends in North Dakota: Crossfit

Crossfit is the clear winner for workout trends in North Dakota, where there’s at least one studio in every major city from Bismarck to Grand Forks.

 

Fitness Trends in Ohio: Circuit Training

In Ohio, circuit training with high-intensity aerobics is the most popular path to a healthy heart, BMI and body weight.

Circuit Training

Fitness Trends in Oklahoma: Pound Workout

Founded by a pair of drummers, the Pound Workout is a combination of Pilates, isometric movements and plyometrics that uses lightweight “drumsticks” to send calories packing, and it’s one of the most popular workouts in Oklahoma.

 

Fitness Trends in Oregon: Total Fitness

The Total Fitness workout, based on practical strength training exercises, is gaining steam all over Portland, while several variations of yoga dominate the rest of the state.

 

Fitness Trends in Pennsylvania: Aerial Yoga

The Keystone State is packed with aerial yoga practitioners – the workouts are designed to strengthen your core and improve flexibility.

 

Fitness Trends in Rhode Island: TRX

Although Zumba is still going strong in Rhode Island, TRX is the trend sweeping the state right now.

 

Fitness Trends in South Carolina: Dumbbell Leg Workouts

South Carolinians shred their thighs and calves with dumbbell leg workouts before heading to Krav Maga classes, which are gaining students in record numbers.

 

Fitness Trends in South Dakota: HIIT Workouts

In South Dakota, high-intensity interval training (similar to what you see in Crossfit or Orangetheory) is incredibly popular.

Fitness Trends in Tennessee: TRX

TRX workouts are more popular than foam roller workouts are in Nashville, but it’s the opposite in Memphis.

 

Fitness Trends in Texas: Bodybuilding

Texans are weightlifting and bodybuilding like crazy, but in the major cities, TRX and AcroYoga are always busy classes.

The Most Popular Fitness Trends in All 50 States weight

Fitness Trends in Utah: Total Fitness

Total Fitness classes that focus on physical, nutritional, mental and social fitness are the most popular cardio workouts in Utah.

 

Fitness Trends in Vermont: TRX

Vermont isn’t immune to TRX’s draw – people from Burlington to Essex Junction are going full-throttle in these high-intensity workouts.

 

Fitness Trends in Virginia: Aerial Yoga

Aerial yoga and swimming workouts are the fastest-growing fitness trends in Virginia (yoga is more popular in cities like Alexandria, while people are diving head-first into water fitness classes in Virginia Beach).

 

Fitness Trends in Washington, D.C.: SoulCycle

People are powering through SoulCycle workouts all over the nation’s capital, but TRX and AcroYoga are almost as popular as these bike-based workouts are.

 

Fitness Trends in Washington State: LISS Cardio

Low-intensity, steady state cardio is where it’s at in Washington State, where jogging and trampoline workouts are in full swing.

 

Fitness Trends in West Virginia: Fitness Apps

People in West Virginia are downloading thousands of fitness apps covering everything from HIIT and ab exercises to jump rope workouts and back exercises.

 

Fitness Trends in Wisconsin: 7-Minute Workout

The 7-Minute Workout, which covers 12 high-intensity bodyweight exercises at 30 seconds a pop, is trending in Wisconsin.

The Most Popular Fitness Trends in All 50 States 7 Minute

Fitness Trends in Wyoming: Orangetheory

Wyoming is all about Orangetheory, a high-intensity workout similar to Crossfit, but they’re also searching for specific fitness equipment (we’re looking at you, ThighMaster).

 

Methodology

We put together this list of the hottest fitness trends across the country by evaluating several factors, including the number of Google searches performed each month in each state, how many times each workout was mentioned in blogs, newspaper articles and fitness journals, and how many gyms and fitness centers offering each workout are located in major cities.

What Fitness Foundation Are You Working On?

Where’s your favorite workout trending? Are you a lone fitness fanatic, or are other people in your state on board with your preferred path to fitness? We’d love to hear about it, so share your story in the comments!  

The post The Most Popular Fitness Trends in All 50 States  appeared first on Redfin Real-Time.

Diary of an IPO

0
0

Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman published the below diary of the company’s IPO on Linkedin on Jan. 16, 2018.


Boarding Delta 2989 in Chicago on a Friday night, I left Chris Nielsen, our CFO, in 16D and headed to the bathroom. We’d been scrunched together in the back row of a black SUV for the first five days of our roadshow but now, when I latched the bathroom door, I was alone. I called our chairman to tell him not enough people wanted to buy Redfin’s stock and that our IPO was in trouble.

The Sunday before, I’d been happy and heedless. I’d skipped the final rehearsal of our investor pitch to take my kids canoeing. I’d run through the airport without realizing my shirt was inside-out until bumping into a board member’s husband.

I kept a diary of the whole IPO process, which was as weird as an abduction by space aliens. Instead of being bathed in a golden light, I found myself poked and prodded like Kate McKinnon in a Saturday Night Live skit. And what I learned is that seeking approval from one person after another will tear your heart out. I learned to see everything I loved, at least for a moment, from an appraising distance, so I could stop nit-picking it or promoting it or defending the way it is now, and instead reimagine it at its full potential. I learned that sometimes you should just tell people the ugliest things about you because those are the things that people trust the most.

And I learned that very rich people insist on getting the whole truth about a business before buying its stock, which means that civil society is still capable of producing the whole truth about topics that are far more important than Redfin’s stock. There should be a roadshow for the healthcare system and education reform, with private jets and black cars for the doctors and teachers involved, but also an army of IPO lawyers and regulators to assure the skeptics that everything in the roadshow is true.

The whole IPO process has historically been a coronation, but several recently had turned into a beheading, and several after ours faltered too. Today, as tech businesses line up to cash in on a roaring stock market, 2018 promises to be the biggest year for public offerings since 1999’s Internet bubble. What’s at stake now are the same challenges Redfin went through a few months before: the world has begun to wonder if any Internet company can compete with Facebook, Google and Amazon, and if this new generation of companies can surpass the billion-dollar price-tags put on them in a private sale.

Day One: A Rolling Panic Room

The roadshows in which companies pitch our prospects to investors are choreographed pandemonium, starting on a Monday in New York, and ending nearly two weeks later back in the same place with an IPO. In between, there are ten meetings a day, in a new city every day, with not a single meeting booked until the roadshow begins with a presentation to the salespeople who schedule the meetings.

The first morning of the roadshow was the presentation to this salesforce, on the top floor of Goldman’s headquarters. You could see the Statue of Liberty, dwarfed by all the commerce. I had wanted to be disaffected by the tableaux of Manhattan’s power, but I’d already asked the bankers, in embarrassing detail, exactly what to wear.

Before running Redfin, I’d co-founded a company that had gone public in 2002. Even on the day we rang the bell, I only had a sip of champagne in a cubicle before trudging back to my own desk. Going into Redfin’s IPO, I realized how foolish I’d been to dismiss anything in our haphazard lives that can act as a rite of passage. Adult life, bereft of proms or podiums or graduation ceremonies, is just so much hard work.

A Pitch to the Last of the Mohicans

No one understands this need for ceremony, the theater of the IPO, better than Goldman Sachs. Goldman’s salespeople are the last of the Mohicans, as sales and trading have largely been automated over the past twenty years. A human being isn’t needed to trade Google or Apple stock unless it’s a very large order. But a new stock like Redfin is still sold by people.

The Goldman bankers who put together deals for the public markets can’t even access the floors housing the Goldman sales and trading folks, who only get to work off the public set of facts assembled by the bankers. Only when the bankers have finally prepared a company for its roadshow can they, on the day of the roadshow’s launch, walk across the lobby to the elevators that take them to the salespeople.

The hedge funds and mutual funds called on by the salespeople are collectively known as the buy-side. The banks selling your stock to these funds are known as the sell-side.The public generally thinks of investment bankers as the peak of wealth and power but it’s the fund managers who make obscene money, at least until a bad trade chases them out of the business.

Once I realized how much money was being made on the buy-side, I almost started to feel bad for the bankers on the sell-side. The bankers worked around the clock for months; the junior analysts and mid-level associates on the team all talked about how happy they were to have a humane lead banker who insisted they take one day off every seven. For all this, they earned the bank a few million dollars, a princely sum but not compared to the amount a single fund got flipping our stock within 30 minutes of our IPO.

The banks used to get a plate at their own buffet, using their own money to buy and sell the stocks they sold to others, but after the financial crisis of 2008, Dodd-Frank legislation made this illegal, eliminating one of the bank’s most lucrative businesses, along with many of its risks. Now that a bank can’t bet its own capital, it’s more like an accounting firm or ad agency, selling its people’s time and services for money.

A Ballet Choreographed on the Fly

And while it’s popular to grouse about the banks and their fees, their service was a thing of beauty. After our pitch to the sales force, Chris and I ate sandwiches in a Goldman conference room to give the sales people time to book the day. Forty-five minutes later, we were in a car headed uptown for the first of 56 meetings, which continued, without a single gap except for travel and sleep, for the next nine days.

We had two SUVs, one carrying two bankers and three or four Redfin folks, one driving behind us empty. I asked our bankers if the empty SUV was carrying spare human organs in case of a medical emergency; they laughed. Maybe it was available as a rolling panic room in case any of us ever needed personal space or private reassurance? We asked many times to have it sent home but its purpose was unfathomable and implacable.

The First Goldman IPO on Commercial Flights

By three that first day, we knew we were headed to Boston that night on a commercial flight. Since one of Redfin’s mottos is that we’re all paid by the sweat of an agent’s brow, we’d said we couldn’t pay for the private jet until the roadshow’s final crazy sprint, when we were going from Kansas City to Milwaukee to Baltimore in one day.

Our would-be investors loved this thrift, and our bankers, despite noting that they had never run a roadshow on commercial flights, gamely celebrated it. But then we found ourselves, each and every night on the roadshow’s first week, flights delayed for hours, eating Sbarro, lugging a box of prospectuses through La Guardia, Logan or O’Hare, unable to reach the hotel until 1 a.m.

Goldman never complained.

I went from banker to banker at the airport, apologizing for the decision not to use a private jet. Later that week, I heard from a board member about a recent IPO in which the company going public paid for two private planes, one for the CEO alone, and the other for everyone else.

Like A Dated Disney Ride

And when we finally got to the private jet at the end of the roadshow, what was that like? It was extremely convenient. There was no metal detector. The plane took off when you got on and often the SUVs drove straight onto the tarmac. I’d never even noticed that these tiny airports existed before, hidden in plain sight in the suburbs of every major city.

The planes themselves, with phones built into the armrest from the days before in-flight wifi, reminded me of those Disney rides that are supposed to be futuristic but actually feel dated. The pilots were freakishly, almost suspiciously handsome. You could sit between them while they landed. Everyone took pictures but no one posted them to Instagram. And you got whatever food you wanted. We sampled the local fare like a visiting king: BBQ from Kansas City, fried cheese curds from Wisconsin. The bank had made sure the plane stocked my favorite beer.

Masters of the Universe

In other ways too, the roadshow had the feel of a bygone era. For example, almost everyone on the buy-side we met that week was a man: in one group lunch, all 24 of the portfolio managers in attendance were male. We may have met more portfolio managers who were Israeli special forces veterans than women. I asked our bankers how long it would take the first one to kill me with his bare hands.

Almost all of them took notes on tablets. Some of them tried to look up as you spoke, but with their eyes focused on nothing except the numbers in their head. They weren’t just capturing the highlights of a meeting; it was a nearly verbatim transcription of what we’d said, so we could be held accountable for it later. Information in every form is the currency of Wall Street, and drops of it never seem to fall on the floor.

Chess with Bobby Fischer

Most of the fund managers were exotically, obviously smart. Except for one person who fell asleep in a meeting, none of the fund managers we met was anyone I’d want to be on the other side of a trade with, buying what he sold, or selling what he bought. This is what I realized I had been doing my whole life as an E-Trade stock-picker; it had been like challenging Bobby Fischer to a game of chess. I spent a long time that first week trying to judge whether it made sense to have so many brilliant people decide where our society allocates capital, as opposed to making cars or software or hospitals.

The Last Ideology-Free Realm

What impressed me most about these people was their willingness to change their minds. No one in our society seems to change her mind about Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton based on a new fact, but a fund manager on the wrong side of a bad trade has to change her mind in a moment or lose her job. This is why investing is the world’s last ideology-free realm. It would be easier to accept the premise that our society can’t agree on one version of the truth anymore, about whether temperatures are rising or the economy is growing, except that’s exactly what happens when every public company reports its earnings every quarter. You can believe what you want to believe, but not with a million dollars on the line.

“Come On Guys, It’s Only 28 Million Bucks”

We visited the top floors of the tallest skyscrapers, posing for goofy selfies in art installations and beside sprawling views of Central Park. A portfolio manager claimed that the firm’s two full-time art curators had to approve the posters he put up in his own office. We went into a building surrounded by planter boxes with retractable steel gates that could be closed in case of an anarchist riot. From a video conference in a Mexican cabana, a hedge-fund king chafed at how careful his team was being about a Redfin investment, saying “Come on guys, it’s only 28 million bucks.”

For the most part, we answered questions rather than delivering a pitch: about a Redfin agent arrested in our early days for pot farming, about a Redfin sign bludgeoned down and left in my yard. We rotated in members of the executive team, one every two days, but what worked even better was having our local real estate agents show up to speak for themselves, about how we recruited employees or served customers.

Through all 56 meetings, in New York, Boston, Chicago, San Francisco, Kansas City, Milwaukee and Baltimore, the overwhelming experience was of repetition: over and over we answered the same questions. When I got a sore throat, the youngest member of the banking team stopped off at a pharmacy to get me some lozenges and a card with a kitten on it, which I still have.

The Last, Best Order

One of my favorite meetings was with a Scottish fund manager in San Francisco. His firm was known for buying only a few stocks, and holding each for as long as a decade. In a hotel meeting room with enough prospectuses, pitchbooks, cookies, fruit, cheeses, crackers and popcorn for 30 people, he came in alone. And rather than rattling through twenty or thirty questions about our metrics, he just asked me why I ran the company.

I found myself talking about my older brother, who had died just before I became Redfin’s CEO, and the feeling I had then that my life so far hadn’t made the world a much better place. He asked me about whether Redfin’s sense of mission would survive our public offering. He didn’t write much down. His order was one of the last, and the best, to come in.

An Invitation to a Beheading

Hours after each meeting, a salesperson would call the account. The bankers tracked the orders on their phones. There was a line chart showing how many orders each recent IPO had had at the end of each day on the road; a dozen lines sloped steeply upwards except ours, which looked like a dying slug. When Chris and I got on the plane home that first Friday, we were at a third of where our bankers said a strong IPO should be at that point.

Goldman never wavered in its confidence that demand would be sufficient to sell all the stock we had to sell, but what I was too embarrassed to say was that I wanted the IPO to be more than sufficient. I wanted it to be a triumph for everyone I worked with, all the people who could have made more money over the past decade at Amazon or Google, Sotheby’s or Corcoran.

I spent that weekend at home despondent, shaking my head grimly when my six-year-old tried to get me into the bouncy house at a birthday party, brooding over a competitor’s claim that it would be able to dissuade investors from buying our stock. I expected our first day of trading the following Friday to be a fiasco.

The Sound of Hooves Moving Across the Plain

What had been at stake in Redfin’s roadshow was whether we could make money in a world of Internet giants, but also whether we could sell our stock without selling out. We’d known some investors would get hung up on the cost of our real estate agents’ salaries and health insurance, or the amount we saved homebuyers without any data that it drove sales. We never tried to talk them out of those concerns.

To portfolio managers who wanted to see the company as nothing more than a real estate website without the costs of customer service, we had said we were as proud of cleaning out a listing customer’s closets as we were about inventing map-based search. To emphasize the frugality we learned in the 2008 housing crisis, we included in our investor video a cameo of the Batman villain Bane, who talked about being born in the dark. We described ourselves in the prospectus as “rabid squirrels.” We had wanted to go public our way, and now we had 48 hours to wonder whether that had been a mistake.

I don’t know what changed that weekend. Goldman went into overdrive with every open account; no one, I would guess, got her day off. A call with a titan of finance was arranged to give me an inspiring speech that everything would work out, then he forgot to mute his phone while he flushed the toilet.

Maybe, since our roadshow was in the middle of earnings season, the fund managers just needed a Saturday to make up their minds. Maybe they started to hear the sound that they are in the end most exquisitely attuned to, of other hooves beginning to move across the plain. We wanted to believe that everything strange about our half-website, half-broker business was why investors didn’t decide right away, but also why so many came our way in the end. We’ll never know.

All we know is that between Friday night and Monday morning in San Francisco, the number of orders for our stock had tripled. And after every meeting, more orders came pouring in. When we left California for the Midwest, the roadshow had gone from a death-march to a celebration. On the last day, when we had orders for twenty-three times times the actual number of shares we had to sell, folks from our Baltimore office crowded onto the private plane, filling every seat for the trip back to New York. The 40 longest-tenured employees would be there, to celebrate a harrowing, happy decade together. Someone opened a bottle of champagne.

The Yo-Yo Ma of Trading Stocks

Back in New York, we sat down with the Goldman trader who would open our stock, Benny Adler. He walked into the room talking about the rumors surrounding the fabled Aramco IPO, which some time in 2018 is supposed to turn Saudi Arabia’s billion years of buried dinosaur bones and carboniferous forests into a trillion-dollar public company, and how it was every trader’s dream to open that stock. He had opened Alibaba and Twitter, with the bank’s legendary CEO, Lloyd Blankfein, standing, arms folded, just a few inches behind him on Goldman’s trading floor. Someone told me he was brought into deals that Goldman didn’t even underwrite.

Later that night, Redfin would sell our stock to the investors we met on the road show, for $15 per share. The next day would be the first day of trading, when, about an hour after the market had opened, some of those investors would sell to the public the shares they had just bought. It was Benny’s job to pick the price of that first trade, based on the pre-orders from buyers and sellers lining up on either side of his screen.

The enemy, for us, was volatility: we didn’t want the stock to go down, but we didn’t want it to go up too much either. When the stock price doubles on the first day of trading, it makes for a nice headline, but leaves you with shareholders set up for disappointment. And it’s not like anyone at Redfin would benefit from that first-day pop: the new shares issued to the investors we just met on the roadshow could trade, but the company and its employees had agreed not to sell any stock for months, a standard practice for virtually every IPO.

In the meantime, the stock would jolt up and down on what Wall Street describes as “technicals,” not “fundamentals.” The company’s revenues, products and customers become almost irrelevant to the stock price when the overwhelming issue is that there are so few shares to buy. Hedge funds will bet against the stock, and others will bid it up just to squeeze those funds out of that bet. It’s like a new type of card game in a Las Vegas casino, with lots of gamblers lined up to play, and only a few investors holding the cards.

Benny talked to us about what he’d do if the stock started falling the next day, warning any would-be buyers to hold off, then organizing a rally backed by Goldman’s own trading at $13. This element of the deal, known as a green shoe, let Goldman sell extra shares on the assumption that demand would be high, but obligated Goldman to buy those shares back if demand was low.

Benny had also identified investors from the roadshow who had called to tell Goldman they would sell their Redfin stock at $21. He said that others would be sneakier: promising to hold our stock for years in order to get a large initial allocation of shares, then, within minutes of the first trade, smuggling quick sales through smaller brokerages. All of this would limit how much the stock could go up. I felt relieved.

We were already worried about setting expectations on our first day that we’d spend all of 2018 struggling to meet. This is why we sold some of our stock to investors from the roadshow who wanted to flip it rather than own it, just to put enough shares in play the next day. It’s why Benny kiboshed a Redfin appearance scheduled on CNBC before the opening bell. When we worried it might be hard for the CNBC producers to re-schedule on such short notice, Benny just laughed.

Then it was time to go. I asked him if I could take his photo. “Not here,” he said. Then he walked out to the trading floor, picked up a phone and pretended to yell into it. I snapped the picture.

From the same Goldman conference room where we nibbled on sandwiches before the roadshow started, we went over the list of investors who’d given us orders on the roadshow, and decided which to sell our stock to that night. Goldman rolled out a cake for our CTO’s 40th birthday.

Kaboom

At the NASDAQ in Times Square the next day, I told my wife I felt the way I did on the morning of our wedding: that as much as I wanted to marry her, it had made me miserable when everyone told me it would be the happiest day of my life. I can never quite be happy when I’m supposed to be. I was nervous about a speech I’d have to give in front of her at the NASDAQ, as if my parents had come to one of my little-league games.

I mumbled something to our employees about Shakespeare’s tragedies being unbearable because they could have so easily turned out the other way. What I forgot to say was that was what also made Redfin’s triumphs so giddy, because of all the times we almost went bankrupt. I gave a second speech that was broadcast on the financial news shows, more enthusiastic but still meandering. Out of sheer cluelessness, I hadn’t realized anything I said would be broadcast until a few minutes before.

And then I pushed a button on a screen that was supposed to open the market, but in fact wasn’t connected to anything. There were confetti cannons and photographers and videographers and images that took over all the screens on Times Square. An hour later, our stock started trading at $19.56, a $45 million gift to the roadshow investors who got an allocation the night before at $15.

Every Startup Should Have a Day Like That

Then the employees left the NASDAQ studio, which looked like a game-show set, and the interviews began. Everyone was nice to us. I finally figured out that the only time I could ever bear myself on TV was when I didn’t worry at all about what to say, and focused instead on conveying how I felt, which was very, very excited.

My last call with the press was at 5:30 p.m., via a cell phone as I walked through Central Park to a fancy French restaurant. Redfin’s CTO, my wife, another friend and I saw a play. Then we walked into the disorienting brilliance and crowds of Times Square at midnight, forgetting that Redfin would appear on all the screens again. It had in fact turned out like my wedding: it was the best day of my professional life. Every startup, every group of people who works together for a long time, should have a day like that.

Glory, Not Just Gold

Many assumed I was happy because of all the money I’d made. And I’m sure that some part of it was that, but it wasn’t at all how I felt, then or now. Ask anyone how much money you get for winning a Pulitzer Prize and you will learn that most people in the end are hungrier for glory than gold. For twelve years, I’d asked almost everyone I cared about to believe in a company that I had worried would fail, and then it didn’t. There’s probably a long word in German for that feeling, but the closest we have in English is ecstasy.

The Tiny Piece of String at the Finish

The only way I’ve been able to account for that ecstasy is by comparing it to a bicycle race. I was one of the worst bicycle riders who ever pinned a number to his jersey.

Unless you’re one of those rare gods who can pedal into the wind alone, you never break out into the open road until the final two hundred meters of a race. Otherwise, you ride within 24 inches of a competitor’s back-wheel, wondering how to maintain that pace for another 30 seconds, but then doing that for hours. Everyone is jostling you and pinching off the line you want to take around a corner, and trying to ditch you on murderous descents, all because of a tiny piece of string strung across an arbitrary finish line.

If you were riding for yourself and not your teammates, or if there was a way to pull out without having to pedal home alone, you would. After my first race, I realized that it was actually a relief not to have the talent of a Greg LeMond, because I still wouldn’t want to turn myself inside out every day to earn a living. Business has often been that hard for me too. Almost nothing can make you more miserable than when your company is struggling, and only then do you realize that this is exactly when it’s almost impossible for a CEO to quit.

But then within sight of the line, the race opens up, almost like a hallucination, and you can finally see the world in front of you. You forget for just a moment about all the races, wrecks and failures behind you and ahead of you. And then just like that, the race is over, and you’re disoriented and relieved and already nostalgic and completely happy in a way you’ve never been before. This was how I felt when I walked out of the NASDAQ and into our life as a public company. That was four months ago. I haven’t checked the stock price since.

Many thanks to the bankers, lawyers and auditors at Goldman Sachs, Allen & Company, Fenwick & West, Cooley, Deloitte and to all the people of Redfin for supporting our IPO.

The post Diary of an IPO appeared first on Redfin Real-Time.

2017 Closed with Strong Home Price Growth, Up 7 Percent in December

0
0

Key Takeaways:

  • For the full year, 2017 home sales increased 1.7 percent over 2016, while prices gained 7.0 percent. The median 2017 sale price was $284,500.
  • National home prices rose 6.8 percent in December as inventory declined 14.5 percent.
  • San Jose had the highest price growth and lowest supply of homes in December of all Redfin metros. December prices climbed 32 percent compared to last year as supply sunk to a record low of 0.5 months.

Home prices finished the year strong, up 6.8 percent in December from last year to a national median sale price of $287,000 across the markets Redfin serves. Sales were down 2.4 percent ending a year of fluctuating sales growth. The number of homes for sale declined 14.5 percent compared to a year ago, marking 27 months in a row of inventory declines.The typical home that sold in December found a buyer after 49 days on the market, five days fewer than 2016.

“Like last year, low inventory will be the biggest driver of the 2018 real estate market,” said Redfin chief economist Nela Richardson. “Major housing market dynamics don’t shift dramatically when the clock strikes midnight on Jan. 1. We anticipate a continuation of the same trends we’ve been seeing for the past few years. Price growth will remain strong as many homeowners will remain deterred from selling due to the low mortgage rates they’ve locked in and the high price of their would-be move-up home.”

Market Summary December 2018 Month-Over-Month Year-Over-Year
Median sale price $286,700 -1.3% 6.8%
Homes sold 218,700 -0.5% -2.4%
New listings 147,100 -29.5% -3.0%
All Homes for sale 568,000 -14.0% -14.5%
Median days on market 49 3 -5
Months of supply 2.6 -0.4 -0.4
Sold above list 20.5% -1.5% 0.5%
Median Off-Market Redfin Estimate $250,600 0.7%
Average Sale-to-list 98.0% -0.1% 0.2%

The number of homes newly listed for sale in December decreased 3.0 percent. With just 2.6 months of supply in December, the market was far below the six months of supply that represents balance between buyers and sellers.

Facing Lowest Supply on Record, San Jose Prices Rose 31.9 Percent Year Over Year

San Jose had only 0.5 months of supply in December, the lowest monthly supply Redfin has recorded in any metro area. This means that if the pace of home sales continued and no new homes were listed, it would only take about two weeks for all the homes currently for sale to find buyers.  Seattle and Oakland also faced extremely tight markets with just 0.6 months of supply in December.

Unsurprisingly, San Jose was the fastest and most competitive market in December with the typical home finding a buyer in a median of 12 days, followed by Seattle and Oakland at 15 and 16 days respectively. More than three-quarters (76.2%) of San Jose homes sold above the list price. Of all the metro areas Redfin tracks, San Jose has had the steepest year-over-year price growth and inventory declines for three months in a row.

Redfin San Jose agent Kalena Masching says that despite the high prices (her market had a  median sale price of $1.1 million in December) San Jose remains more affordable than San Francisco.

“Even highly-paid tech workers are priced out of San Francisco and moving to San Jose. This demand coupled with low inventory and job growth at the tech campuses in the South Bay has caused prices to soar.”

Median Redfin Estimate Was $251,000 in December

The median value of off-market homes in December was $250,600, as measured by the Redfin Estimate, up 0.7 percent from November. Consistent with November, 42.9 percent of homes listed for sale in December were priced higher than their concurrent Redfin Estimate, a measure of a home’s value and prediction of its eventual sale price. The median list price-to-Redfin Estimate ratio was 100.2 percent, which means the typical home for sale last month was priced in line with its estimated value.

Other December Highlights

Competition

  • San Jose, CA was the fastest market for the third month in a row, with half of all homes pending sale in just 12 days, down from 39 days in December 2016. Seattle, WA and Oakland, CA were the next fastest markets at 15 and 16 median days on market, followed by Boston, MA (20) and San Francisco, CA (21).
  • San Jose, CA was again the most competitive market with 76.2% of homes selling above list price, followed by 68.8% in San Francisco, CA, 62.1% in Oakland, CA, 40.2% in Seattle, WA, and 38.8% in Los Angeles, CA.

Prices

  • San Jose, CA had the nation’s highest price growth for the third month in a row, rising 31.9% since last year to $1,108,000. Las Vegas, NV had the second highest growth at 17.3% year-over-year price growth, followed by Baton Rouge, LA (15.3%), Seattle, WA (15%), and San Francisco, CA (14.7%).
  • 2 metros saw price declines in December: Albany, NY (-3.2%) and Camden, NJ (-0.7%).

Sales

  • 5 out of 73 metros saw sales surge by double digits from last year. Camden, NJ led the nation in year-over-year sales growth, up 21.3%, followed by Louisville, KY, up 14.5%. Orlando, FL rounded out the top three with sales up 14.2% from a year ago.
  • Cincinnati, OH saw the largest decline in sales since last year, falling 20.8%. Home sales in Portland, OR and Oxnard, CA both declined by 15.6%.

Inventory

  • San Jose, CA had the largest decrease in overall inventory for the third month in a row, falling 51.5% since last December. Oakland, CA (-36.4%), Seattle, WA (-34.0%), and Atlanta, GA (-33.1%) also saw far fewer homes available on the market than a year ago.
  • Baton Rouge, LA had the highest increase in the number of homes for sale, up 12.8% year over year, followed by New Orleans, LA (6.8%) and Austin, TX (5.2%).

Methodology 
The Redfin Real-Time Housing Market Tracker is a monthly analysis of home prices, competition, sales volumes and inventory levels across the markets that Redfin serves nationwide. The analysis is based on data from the Multiple Listing Services of which Redfin is a member. The monthly data may change after publishing as additional real estate transactions are recorded.

Below are market-by-market breakdowns for prices, inventory, new listings and sales for markets with populations of 750 thousand or more. For downloadable data on all of the markets Redfin tracks, visit the Redfin Data Center.

Median Sale Price

Redfin Metro Median Sale Price Month-Over-Month Year-Over-Year
Albany, NY $184,000 -7.1% -3.2%
Allentown, PA $181,000 -1.9% 1.7%
Atlanta, GA $221,400 5.2% 8.0%
Austin, TX $307,500 4.4% 6.1%
Bakersfield, CA $220,000 -2.0% 4.5%
Baltimore, MD $249,900 -3.8% 0.0%
Baton Rouge, LA $203,900 2.7% 15.3%
Birmingham, AL $190,000 6.1% 9.2%
Boston, MA $452,800 0.6% 8.2%
Buffalo, NY $141,000 0.7% 10.2%
Camden, NJ $166,500 0.9% -0.7%
Charlotte, NC $235,000 4.4% 12.2%
Chicago, IL $220,000 -1.3% 2.3%
Cincinnati, OH $156,000 -8.3% 4.0%
Cleveland, OH $135,000 -6.2% 5.9%
Columbus, OH $194,400 5.1% 14.4%
Dallas, TX $285,000 1.8% 9.3%
Denver, CO $380,000 2.7% 9.8%
Detroit, MI $119,000 -1.7% 13.3%
Fort Lauderdale, FL $250,000 1.7% 11.1%
Fort Worth, TX $227,100 3.3% 8.2%
Fresno, CA $255,000 -0.8% 8.5%
Grand Rapids, MI $175,000 -2.7% 8.0%
Greenville, SC $189,000 -0.5% 8.0%
Hampton Roads, VA $220,000 -0.5% 2.3%
Honolulu, HI $590,000 -0.8% 8.9%
Houston, TX $230,000 2.1% 1.1%
Indianapolis, IN $162,500 -1.5% 6.9%
Jacksonville, FL $216,000 3.5% 9.1%
Kansas City, MO $192,500 -1.3% 7.0%
Knoxville, TN $183,400 -1.8% 11.1%
Las Vegas, NV $252,200 1.7% 17.3%
Long Island, NY $420,000 0.0% 4.5%
Los Angeles, CA $585,000 -0.6% 9.3%
Louisville, KY $180,000 0.1% 5.9%
Memphis, TN $169,000 4.9% 7.6%
Miami, FL $282,000 1.5% 10.6%
Milwaukee, WI $186,000 -2.1% 6.0%
Minneapolis, MN $247,400 1.0% 7.6%
Montgomery County, PA $295,000 1.7% 8.3%
Nashville, TN $279,800 1.9% 8.7%
New Orleans, LA $209,000 4.5% 13.0%
Oakland, CA $668,000 -3.2% 11.3%
Oklahoma City, OK $159,900 -0.7% 1.8%
Omaha, NE $175,000 -1.7% 2.3%
Orange County, CA $661,000 -2.1% 4.1%
Orlando, FL $238,000 6.3% 13.9%
Oxnard, CA $593,100 -1.1% 10.9%
Philadelphia, PA $189,100 2.2% 8.0%
Phoenix, AZ $247,000 0.0% 7.9%
Pittsburgh, PA $147,000 -5.2% 0.5%
Portland, OR $370,000 0.5% 9.1%
Providence, RI $250,000 -3.5% 6.4%
Raleigh, NC $270,000 0.7% 4.3%
Richmond, VA $237,000 2.4% 8.5%
Riverside, CA $349,500 3.1% 7.5%
Rochester, NY $130,000 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento, CA $370,000 -1.3% 9.1%
Salt Lake City, UT $290,000 -3.3% 9.5%
San Antonio, TX $215,000 1.5% 3.9%
San Diego, CA $547,500 -0.5% 8.4%
San Francisco, CA $1,325,000 -1.3% 14.7%
San Jose, CA $1,108,000 3.1% 31.9%
Seattle, WA $530,000 0.9% 15.0%
St. Louis, MO $167,000 -0.9% 2.5%
Tacoma, WA $317,000 1.8% 11.2%
Tampa, FL $215,000 0.0% 8.9%
Tucson, AZ $206,500 0.2% 14.1%
Tulsa, OK $165,500 5.4% 8.5%
Warren, MI $190,000 0.0% 5.6%
Washington, DC $380,000 0.0% 0.0%
West Palm Beach, FL $270,000 3.8% 10.2%
Worcester, MA $254,400 -1.1% 6.0%
National $286,700 -1.3% 6.8%

Homes Sold

Redfin Metro Homes Sold Month-Over-Month Year-Over-Year
Albany, NY 827 0.1% -4.2%
Allentown, PA 644 -13.9% -5.6%
Atlanta, GA 8,744 8.2% -5.5%
Austin, TX 2,746 17.5% 7.3%
Bakersfield, CA 667 -2.6% -1.6%
Baltimore, MD 3,632 6.9% 4.8%
Baton Rouge, LA 787 -0.8% -11.5%
Birmingham, AL 1,110 -5.5% 0.0%
Boston, MA 3,848 -13.6% -11.4%
Buffalo, NY 961 -3.8% -6.8%
Camden, NJ 1,543 -16.5% 21.3%
Charlotte, NC 2,908 -5.4% -9.9%
Chicago, IL 8,691 16.9% 7.5%
Cincinnati, OH 1,713 -10.9% -20.8%
Cleveland, OH 2,145 -6.0% -1.2%
Columbus, OH 2,352 0.2% -0.9%
Dallas, TX 4,951 3.2% 1.2%
Denver, CO 4,395 2.3% -5.6%
Detroit, MI 1,557 -25.4% 1.4%
Fort Lauderdale, FL 2,943 19.7% -6.6%
Fort Worth, TX 2,544 2.3% -3.2%
Fresno, CA 685 -4.5% -12.3%
Grand Rapids, MI 1,173 -5.3% -6.4%
Greenville, SC 1,062 18.7% 6.2%
Hampton Roads, VA 1,857 7.8% 3.9%
Honolulu, HI 811 -13.4% -5.5%
Houston, TX 6,922 7.5% 1.4%
Indianapolis, IN 2,466 -4.0% -2.6%
Jacksonville, FL 2,228 12.1% 8.4%
Kansas City, MO 2,539 -7.9% -5.3%
Knoxville, TN 1,011 -10.2% -6.0%
Las Vegas, NV 3,150 -1.0% -8.0%
Long Island, NY 2,241 -20.0% -13.2%
Los Angeles, CA 5,935 0.1% -6.2%
Louisville, KY 1,336 16.6% 14.5%
Memphis, TN 1,052 -5.7% -2.9%
Miami, FL 2,549 11.7% -4.4%
Milwaukee, WI 1,317 -16.0% -3.1%
Minneapolis, MN 4,071 -21.0% -14.3%
Montgomery County, PA 2,109 -3.3% -3.4%
Nashville, TN 3,016 0.6% -5.5%
New Orleans, LA 1,085 11.1% 4.4%
Oakland, CA 2,029 -14.0% -7.6%
Oklahoma City, OK 1,503 -1.7% 2.5%
Omaha, NE 982 -0.4% -11.5%
Orange County, CA 2,247 -7.3% -9.3%
Orlando, FL 3,992 29.3% 14.2%
Oxnard, CA 596 -11.4% -15.6%
Philadelphia, PA 1,966 -3.3% -3.4%
Phoenix, AZ 7,015 -1.4% -0.4%
Pittsburgh, PA 1,928 -0.3% 2.5%
Portland, OR 2,859 -6.4% -15.6%
Providence, RI 1,703 -3.1% -3.0%
Raleigh, NC 2,073 2.4% 2.8%
Richmond, VA 1,553 14.9% 10.6%
Riverside, CA 4,527 1.3% -3.8%
Rochester, NY 942 -0.2% -7.0%
Sacramento, CA 2,450 -4.0% -10.5%
Salt Lake City, UT 1,419 -8.8% -1.6%
San Antonio, TX 2,096 0.8% -9.0%
San Diego, CA 2,641 -5.6% -9.3%
San Francisco, CA 825 -22.6% -9.7%
San Jose, CA 1,037 -14.2% -8.1%
Seattle, WA 3,789 -7.9% -1.1%
St. Louis, MO 3,058 -5.1% -4.0%
Tacoma, WA 1,283 -8.4% -3.7%
Tampa, FL 5,697 28.8% 12.4%
Tucson, AZ 1,155 -7.8% -10.3%
Tulsa, OK 962 17.2% 8.0%
Warren, MI 3,005 -21.9% -7.0%
Washington, DC 6,755 -6.0% 0.6%
West Palm Beach, FL 2,590 12.8% -4.0%
Worcester, MA 891 -7.2% 3.1%
National 218,700 -0.5% -2.4%

New Listings

Redfin Metro New Listings Month-Over-Month Year-Over-Year
Albany, NY 470 -32.5% -4.7%
Albuquerque, NM 702 -25.2% -1.0%
Allentown, PA 490 -35.6% 2.5%
Atlanta, GA 5,564 -28.4% 6.6%
Austin, TX 1,738 -27.2% 6.6%
Bakersfield, CA 518 -25.5% -1.0%
Baltimore, MD 2,167 -31.2% -7.6%
Baton Rouge, LA 634 -22.8% -16.1%
Birmingham, AL 700 -30.7% -19.5%
Boston, MA 1,628 -52.6% -8.3%
Buffalo, NY 527 -34.8% 0.6%
Camden, NJ 1,287 -22.1% 1.6%
Charlotte, NC 1,873 -31.8% -2.2%
Chicago, IL 4,739 -31.6% -9.7%
Cincinnati, OH 1,070 -35.1% -5.0%
Cleveland, OH 1,379 -30.9% -2.9%
Columbus, OH 1,366 -28.1% 0.0%
Dallas, TX 3,385 -27.2% 1.1%
Denver, CO 2,042 -37.4% -11.3%
Detroit, MI 1,372 -24.4% 4.3%
Fort Lauderdale, FL 2,910 -19.1% -7.1%
Fort Worth, TX 1,877 -22.4% -0.3%
Fresno, CA 481 -30.9% -9.8%
Grand Rapids, MI 641 -37.0% -0.8%
Greenville, SC 632 -34.6% -5.1%
Hampton Roads, VA 1,374 -24.4% 5.4%
Honolulu, HI 607 -35.6% -0.5%
Houston, TX 4,948 -28.0% -3.5%
Indianapolis, IN 1,485 -28.5% -2.2%
Jacksonville, FL 1,582 -22.6% -3.4%
Kansas City, MO 1,795 -24.5% 17.6%
Knoxville, TN 769 -26.0% 9.9%
Las Vegas, NV 2,395 -20.8% -3.7%
Long Island, NY 1,461 -36.4% -0.3%
Los Angeles, CA 3,525 -36.6% -8.8%
Louisville, KY 714 -34.4% -8.9%
Memphis, TN 745 -28.4% 5.5%
Miami, FL 3,125 -20.8% -2.8%
Milwaukee, WI 664 -36.6% -1.9%
Minneapolis, MN 1,906 -34.8% -5.6%
Montgomery County, PA 948 -42.9% -15.8%
Nashville, TN 2,240 -25.3% 5.4%
New Orleans, LA 916 -25.3% -0.3%
Oakland, CA 968 -43.6% -5.4%
Oklahoma City, OK 1,227 -22.8% 0.9%
Omaha, NE 661 -21.3% 22.4%
Orange County, CA 1,316 -35.5% -5.4%
Orlando, FL 2,839 -20.7% 0.4%
Oxnard, CA 385 -40.2% -8.3%
Philadelphia, PA 1,373 -30.3% -8.6%
Phoenix, AZ 5,464 -28.5% -5.8%
Pittsburgh, PA 1,089 -28.3% -0.5%
Portland, OR 1,581 -31.6% 7.8%
Providence, RI 890 -38.1% -7.9%
Raleigh, NC 1,245 -24.2% -1.4%
Richmond, VA 795 -32.4% -9.7%
Riverside, CA 3,422 -31.6% -1.5%
Rochester, NY 504 -31.7% -10.5%
Sacramento, CA 1,507 -31.6% 2.4%
Salt Lake City, UT 918 -34.6% -3.7%
San Antonio, TX 1,690 -23.4% -10.8%
San Diego, CA 1,676 -36.9% -6.8%
San Francisco, CA 310 -55.3% 2.0%
San Jose, CA 509 -44.9% 19.5%
Seattle, WA 1,613 -42.2% -10.9%
St. Louis, MO 2,031 -33.8% -6.4%
Tacoma, WA 806 -15.6% 10.3%
Tampa, FL 4,066 -21.7% -7.5%
Tucson, AZ 996 -23.2% -6.5%
Tulsa, OK 758 -23.1% 3.8%
Warren, MI 1,782 -33.4% -7.4%
Washington, DC 3,864 -33.6% -14.2%
West Palm Beach, FL 2,973 -20.7% -1.6%
Worcester, MA 460 -37.2% 10.8%
National 147,100 -29.5% -3.0%

All Homes for Sale

Redfin Metro All Homes for Sale Month-Over-Month Year-Over-Year
Albany, NY 2,389 -12.4% -28.3%
Albuquerque, NM 2,839 -34.8% -27.1%
Allentown, PA 2,127 -13.8% -21.6%
Atlanta, GA 20,633 -11.4% -33.1%
Austin, TX 5,892 -15.2% 5.2%
Bakersfield, CA 1,705 -14.5% -16.6%
Baltimore, MD 8,299 -15.6% -16.8%
Baton Rouge, LA 3,171 -5.6% 12.8%
Birmingham, AL 4,313 -11.6% -15.1%
Boston, MA 4,676 -31.3% -24.8%
Buffalo, NY 1,714 -14.1% -32.4%
Camden, NJ 6,681 -8.2% -5.7%
Charlotte, NC 9,295 -12.7% -4.9%
Chicago, IL 27,453 -18.1% -15.8%
Cincinnati, OH 5,760 -15.5% -12.3%
Cleveland, OH 6,913 -15.3% -15.3%
Columbus, OH 4,541 -20.9% -17.6%
Dallas, TX 9,901 -23.7% -0.5%
Denver, CO 3,966 -25.2% -20.1%
Detroit, MI 4,004 -10.8% -6.9%
Fort Lauderdale, FL 11,940 -7.2% -12.2%
Fort Worth, TX 4,771 -18.3% -11.9%
Fresno, CA 1,271 -16.1% -18.9%
Grand Rapids, MI 1,968 -18.1% -11.7%
Greenville, SC 3,265 -11.9% -8.4%
Hampton Roads, VA 6,503 -11.2% -11.0%
Honolulu, HI 2,627 -11.0% 2.2%
Houston, TX 20,771 -12.5% -6.2%
Indianapolis, IN 5,332 -16.2% -24.6%
Jacksonville, FL 5,443 -9.4% -15.0%
Knoxville, TN 3,965 -9.0% -9.8%
Las Vegas, NV 7,867 -13.0% -26.1%
Long Island, NY 8,340 -11.5% -14.7%
Los Angeles, CA 10,895 -23.3% -25.5%
Louisville, KY 2,582 -17.2% -11.5%
Memphis, TN 2,682 -14.0% -18.9%
Miami, FL 17,087 -3.6% -5.6%
Milwaukee, WI 3,985 -19.3% -20.2%
Minneapolis, MN 6,722 -23.4% -24.0%
Montgomery County, PA 5,719 -18.8% -9.5%
Nashville, TN 8,107 -11.7% 1.4%
New Orleans, LA 5,555 -4.2% 6.8%
Oakland, CA 1,184 -40.9% -36.4%
Oklahoma City, OK 5,325 -8.7% -10.9%
Omaha, NE 1,667 -11.9% -10.5%
Orange County, CA 4,493 -24.4% -25.0%
Orlando, FL 8,326 -12.1% -19.3%
Oxnard, CA 1,115 -19.7% -22.4%
Philadelphia, PA 6,226 -14.0% -12.4%
Phoenix, AZ 17,638 -11.7% -16.6%
Pittsburgh, PA 8,078 -12.3% -14.5%
Portland, OR 4,280 -16.3% -7.7%
Providence, RI 4,137 -19.2% -19.2%
Raleigh, NC 5,384 -12.4% -0.4%
Richmond, VA 2,735 -17.1% -19.4%
Riverside, CA 12,286 -13.6% -21.3%
Rochester, NY 1,682 -16.0% -31.4%
Sacramento, CA 3,258 -26.2% -17.4%
Salt Lake City, UT 2,632 -31.5% -9.5%
San Antonio, TX 6,744 -13.5% -4.4%
San Diego, CA 4,048 -20.1% -19.2%
San Francisco, CA 553 -49.2% -31.6%
San Jose, CA 528 -41.7% -51.5%
Seattle, WA 2,254 -35.4% -34.0%
St. Louis, MO 9,623 -18.2% -8.9%
Tacoma, WA 1,567 -18.0% -23.7%
Tampa, FL 11,258 -7.5% -17.8%
Tucson, AZ 4,044 -10.2% -9.0%
Tulsa, OK 3,562 -7.4% -8.1%
Warren, MI 5,980 -17.3% -18.4%
Washington, DC 12,316 -20.6% -15.6%
West Palm Beach, FL 13,512 -3.2% -4.1%
Worcester, MA 1,468 -22.0% -25.9%
National 568,000 -14.0% -14.5%

Median Off-Market Redfin Estimate

Redfin Metro Estimate Month-Over-Month
Albany, NY $204,600 1.0%
Allentown, PA $194,400 0.4%
Atlanta, GA $188,900 0.5%
Austin, TX $288,100 -0.3%
Bakersfield, CA $198,400 0.4%
Baltimore, MD $243,800 0.4%
Baton Rouge, LA $152,300 0.7%
Birmingham, AL $138,200 0.8%
Boston, MA $455,700 0.6%
Buffalo, NY $145,200 1.4%
Camden, NJ $185,900 0.6%
Charlotte, NC $174,000 1.3%
Chicago, IL $231,000 0.6%
Cincinnati, OH $152,700 0.6%
Cleveland, OH $129,600 0.7%
Columbus, OH $167,700 0.9%
Dallas, TX $233,800 0.7%
Denver, CO $373,800 0.5%
Detroit, MI $80,700 3.0%
Fort Lauderdale, FL $237,600 0.7%
Fort Worth, TX $189,700 0.8%
Fresno, CA $231,800 1.3%
Grand Rapids, MI $145,400 0.1%
Greenville, SC $151,600 0.8%
Hampton Roads, VA $212,700 0.3%
Honolulu, HI $662,600 0.2%
Houston, TX $191,700 0.4%
Indianapolis, IN $144,400 1.0%
Jacksonville, FL $193,000 1.8%
Kansas City, MO $170,600 1.3%
Knoxville, TN $135,600 0.8%
Las Vegas, NV $228,800 1.6%
Long Island, NY $410,200 1.1%
Los Angeles, CA $574,100 0.8%
Louisville, KY $154,300 0.6%
Memphis, TN $122,900 1.5%
Miami, FL $271,500 0.5%
Milwaukee, WI $189,100 0.6%
Minneapolis, MN $240,200 0.6%
Montgomery County, PA $304,300 0.5%
Nashville, TN $219,000 1.1%
New Orleans, LA $175,200 0.6%
Oakland, CA $701,800 0.6%
Oklahoma City, OK $135,200 -0.8%
Omaha, NE $156,800 0.2%
Orange County, CA $670,000 0.7%
Orlando, FL $207,700 0.8%
Oxnard, CA $571,000 0.7%
Philadelphia, PA $182,100 0.2%
Phoenix, AZ $244,200 0.6%
Pittsburgh, PA $134,900 0.2%
Portland, OR $369,200 -1.1%
Providence, RI $275,000 1.2%
Raleigh, NC $242,500 0.5%
Richmond, VA $205,800 0.5%
Riverside, CA $332,100 0.8%
Rochester, NY $135,400 0.8%
Sacramento, CA $375,400 0.5%
Salt Lake City, UT $292,300 0.9%
San Antonio, TX $175,200 0.6%
San Diego, CA $551,500 0.6%
San Francisco, CA $1,200,400 0.2%
San Jose, CA $1,037,700 1.4%
Seattle, WA $503,500 1.1%
St. Louis, MO $146,400 1.2%
Tacoma, WA $304,000 1.0%
Tampa, FL $195,100 0.7%
Tucson, AZ $189,000 0.7%
Tulsa, OK $133,500 -0.7%
Warren, MI $194,900 1.0%
Washington, DC $371,300 0.3%
West Palm Beach, FL $245,600 0.3%
Worcester, MA $262,600 0.9%
National $250,600 0.7%

The post 2017 Closed with Strong Home Price Growth, Up 7 Percent in December appeared first on Redfin Real-Time.

Which Bidding War Strategies Are Most Effective?

0
0

Nearly one in four (23.6%) homes that sold in 2017 went for more than their asking price, up from 21.8 percent in 2016. These stats provide an indication of how competitive the market is, because prices are most likely to escalate when more than one buyer bids on the same home. But she who offers the highest price is not always the winner. It’s often a lot more complicated than that.

“I try to avoid the term ‘bidding war’ because there’s rarely any fighting, nor do traditional home sales take place in live auctions,” said Kyle Moss, a Redfin agent in Seattle. “Rather than prepare for battle, I help my clients gather and analyze as much information as we can about the home, the seller and the seller’s situation. I advise my buyers in crafting their strongest offer, both in terms of price, and in terms of earning the seller’s confidence that the transaction will close smoothly.”

Beyond offering the highest price, buyers have an array of strategies to consider, from offering all cash, if you’ve got it, to waiving the inspection, financing and appraisal contingencies. They are often used in various combinations, depending on the situation.

“I see each strategy as a lever we can pull to customize our offer so it meets the seller’s individual needs,” said Moss.

So if you’re thinking about buying a home in a competitive market, you should start to familiarize yourself with some of the strategies that can help your offer stand out. We recommend talking to your local agent to come up with the right combination of strategies for the home you’re bidding on or for the seller you’re trying to woo.

We looked to the data on about thousands of offers Redfin agents wrote in the last two years to see how the strategies we track affected buyers’ odds of winning a bidding war:

Rank Strategy Improves a Competitive Offer’s Likelihood of Success by… Improves a Competitive Offer’s Likelihood of Success in the Luxury Market (Top 10% by List Price) by…
#1 All-Cash Offer 97% 438%
#2 Waived Financing Contingency 58% 76%
#3 Personal Cover Letter 52% No Significant Gain
#5 Pre-Inspection No Significant Gain No Significant Gain
#6 Waived Inspection Contingency No Significant Gain No Significant Gain


Cash, of course, is king. All else equal, offering with all cash nearly doubles your chance of getting your offer accepted in a competitive situation. In the luxury market, which we defined as the top 10 percent of the market by list price for the purpose of this analysis, an all-cash offer increases a buyer’s odds of success more than fourfold.

“Cash gives buyers a leg up in the negotiation because it ensures the fastest and most seamless transaction, without the involvement of a loan or an appraisal, which, if things don’t go according to plan, can quickly stymy a deal or delay a closing, even for the most well-intentioned buyers,” said Redfin chief economist Nela Richardson.

Of course, not everyone has the luxury of making an all-cash offer. That’s where the financing contingency, which makes your offer dependent on your loan’s approval, can come in handy. Waiving it increases a buyer’s odds of success by 58 percent. It works by making an offer nearly as ready to close as an all-cash offer by guaranteeing that the buyer will come through with the money if their lender doesn’t. One way buyers who waive their financing contingency reduce their risk of winding up on the hook for the cash is by getting a fully-underwritten loan pre-approval from their lender before they submit their offer. Some companies, like Redfin’s wholly-owned mortgage company, Redfin Mortgage, offer a fully-underwritten pre-approval letter for their borrowers, but not all lenders can or will do this, so it’s an important question to ask when choosing a lender.

Fortunately for most buyers, cash is not the only way into a seller’s heart. We found that a personal letter from the buyer to the seller is nearly as effective at increasing the odds of bidding war success. Often referred to as “love letters,” they can forge a powerful connection between the buyer and seller, highlighting shared hobbies or interests, earning a seller’s compassion or trust, or ensuring that the home will be loved and cared for in the years to come.

For Redfin agent Tony Wright’s buyers, the personal letter ultimately resonated with the listing agent.

The letter introduced the five family members, including a seven-year-old son with severe disabilities, for whom the home’s accessible layout was a perfect fit and a rare find in Salem, Mass., a highly competitive Boston suburb. As his clients were finalizing their offer, Wright learned that there were several other offers being considered by the seller, which happened to be an investor group.

“I always advise my buyers to write personal letters–except when the seller is an investor–as those deals are all about the bottom line,” said Wright. “But in this case, my clients had already written a letter by the time we learned the seller was an investor, so we submitted it anyway. And I’m glad we did, because the letter tipped the scales in our favor, even though there were higher offers. The listing agent quickly responded saying that she had a background in special education, and to let the buyers know that if they brought their price up by $2,000, the home would be theirs.”

Waiving the inspection contingency and the pre-inspection, typically conducted to mitigate the buyer’s risk when waiving said contingency, come with no significant gain in the odds of winning a bidding war. But this won’t stop Redfin agents from advising their clients to use them in appropriate situations while considering the associated risks. Instead, the absence of an odds increase is more likely a reflection of the fact that these strategies are used in some of the most competitive situations in which the seller will only seriously consider offers that waive the inspection contingency.

“A waived inspection contingency is practically required for entry when bidding on a home in San Francisco and in extremely hot neighborhoods in other parts of the country,” Richardson said. “It becomes part of the local real estate culture in very competitive markets.”

“For nine out of every 10 homes I helped clients bid on last year, the seller hired an inspector to conduct a pre-inspection and shared the inspection report with interested buyers as part of the property disclosures,” said Miriam Westberg, a Redfin agent in San Francisco. “This has become common practice here because it makes things easier for sellers by encouraging buyers to waive the inspection contingency and reducing the likelihood of requests for repairs or credits. It also simplifies the process for buyers, who should still do some research and ask their own agent to ensure the seller has chosen a trusted inspector.”

Methodology

Analysts used data on offers Redfin agents wrote in 2016 and 2017 that faced competition to determine how each bidding war strategy affected the associated offer’s odds of getting accepted. 

To read more about common bidding war strategies and their relative usage and effectiveness, check out Leigh Kamping-Carder’s article on the topic here in the Wall Street Journal

The post Which Bidding War Strategies Are Most Effective? appeared first on Redfin Real-Time.

Hoboken Home Once Lived in by Frank Sinatra Sells for $1.68 Million

0
0

A four-bedroom brownstone in Hoboken, NJ just sold for $1.68 million. But it’s not any ordinary home. Built in 1901, the property was once lived in by the famous American singer Frank Sinatra and his family.

While living in the home, Sinatra is said to have attended David E. Rue Junior High and A. J. Demarest High School before dropping out to pursue his dream of becoming a musician. He lived in the home until 1939, when he married his first wife Nancy Barbato and moved to Jersey City. Sinatra went on to become one of the best-selling music artists of all time.

A photo from the home’s listing shows a famous 1938 mugshot of the singer hanging in one of the rooms. Beneath the photo, you can see the home’s address scribbled on a sheriff’s note.

Frank Sinatra Hoboken home

The four-bedroom, two-and-a-half bath home features a formal dining area, eat-in kitchen, second-floor deck and beautifully landscaped garden. Hardwood floors and ornate plaster ceilings can be found throughout home. It is conveniently located near NYC transit and has an impressive Walk Score of 97, making it a walker’s paradise.

Noah Goldberg, a Redfin agent in Hoboken who represented the buyers, says his clients weren’t motivated by the home’s famous past in any way. They simply wanted a nice home in a desirable location.

“As you can see from the price points, Hoboken is a very popular market now…this is a far cry from the working-class town it used to be,” said Goldberg. “With easy commuting options into midtown Manhattan and Wall Street, the ‘Mile Square’ city has become a destination for buyers looking for an alternative to New York City living.”

The post Hoboken Home Once Lived in by Frank Sinatra Sells for $1.68 Million appeared first on Redfin Real-Time.

SB-827: a Win for Affordability or Just a California Dream?

0
0

If you’ve ever lived in one of California’s major cities besides San Francisco without a car, you may have noticed that life on local public transportation isn’t all that convenient. Add in the competition and added expense of finding housing along an already limited transit system, and you’ve got a pretty good argument for moving to the suburbs.

However, Californians seeking an urban lifestyle that relies on walking and public transit to get around could be in luck soon.

In a state that remains dominantly reliant on cars for its residents to get around, development around major transit stops hasn’t flourished the way it has in cities like New York and Boston. The new California bill SB-827 seeks to change all of this.

Though San Francisco is already California’s most walkable city, its Senator Scott Wiener is introducing a bill that would enact sweeping changes for development in transit-rich areas in his home city and throughout the state.

The bill intends to free up strict land use controls and residential zoning restrictions in urban California neighborhoods that would allow developers to build larger buildings and do so faster with far less red tape. California needs more housing, and Wiener’s bill aims to provide it around transit hubs, where it can be developed with the smallest impact on traffic.

If passed, SB-827 would facilitate development of countless homes with immediate access to transit. And homes with easy access to transit come with added value. Redfin found that one extra point of Transit Score, a measure of transit accessibility, increases the value of a home by $2,040 on average, and $4,845 in San Francisco.

So what would this look like in action? For transit-rich metro areas throughout the state, it would establish a required minimum height (45-85 feet depending on street width) for new buildings that sit on land adjacent to transit corridors. For San Francisco in particular, SB-827 would up-zone nearly the entire city. The bill would also end parking minimums, making way for skyscrapers around all of California’s subway stops, and other select major avenues. The bill’s passage could positively impact neighborhood vitality, walkability and potentially increase property values for existing homeowners.

If this all sounds too good to be true, it might be.

Some say the bill would be a huge victory in the fight for affordability, but Redfin chief economist Nela Richardson warns against this assumption.

“I would like to see a bill like this succeed, but that doesn’t mean it’s an easy solution.  It’s unlikely that local interests will allow the bill to pass, but even if it does get approval, it’s not a slam dunk that this will be a victory for affordability,” she said. “For instance, builders may choose to develop luxury homes near highly demanded transit-friendly locations. Unfortunately, building without guidelines hasn’t historically created affordable housing.”

Despite the exciting changes some envision if the bill passes, many local homeowners are likely to revolt against it, and strongly. New zoning laws and the increased density the bill would create cause major concerns for risk-averse homeowners. Renters won’t be happy either with concerns about tear-downs and evictions. In a broader sense, opponents of the bill also criticize its precedent of the statehouse strong arming local restrictions.

Though SB-827 paints a pretty picture of the future, those seeking a walkable transit-powered life outside of San Francisco might be California dreaming for now.

The post SB-827: a Win for Affordability or Just a California Dream? appeared first on Redfin Real-Time.


Amazon: Here’s Where Seattleites Are Already Looking to Move

0
0

Amazon announced the 20 finalist cities vying to host a second headquarters for the tech giant.

Wherever HQ2 splashes down, the highly paid tech workers it will transplant and attract are likely to make waves in the local housing market.

Amazon’s move is going to add momentum to a trend we expect to intensify in 2018 in which people are moving from expensive West Coast markets to smaller, more affordable inland cities. In a recent interview with CNBC, Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman pointed out that American talent is moving inward, and companies like Amazon have no choice but to follow.

To help narrow down the list, we ranked the top 10 HQ2 candidates Seattleites are already moving to based on the portion of Seattle-based Redfin.com users searching for homes outside Seattle in each metro area:

Rank City % of Seattle-Based Users Searching for Homes in Destination
1 Los Angeles 4.64%
2 Chicago 2.88%
3 Austin 2.26%
4 Dallas 1.14%
5 Denver 1.10%
6 Pittsburgh 0.84%
7 Atlanta 0.75%
8 Washington, D.C. 0.60%
9 Philadelphia 0.52%
9 Raleigh 0.52%

Los Angeles, Chicago and Austin topped our list of cities that Seattle residents might move to in the coming months. Cities not listed in the top 10 above consisted of less than .5 percent of searches coming from Seattle.

Wherever HQ2 lands, it is likely to have a big impact on the housing and job markets in the local community.

“We are going to see both businesses and people move to places that are more affordable,” said Kelman. “And it’s going to be good for the country…It’ll depolarize us politically and it’ll balance things out financially.”

The post Amazon: Here’s Where Seattleites Are Already Looking to Move appeared first on Redfin Real-Time.

How Much Do Redfin Agents Earn?

0
0

Redfin strives to be the best employer in real estate. In addition to excellent compensation, benefits and opportunities for growth, Redfin agents share a mission—to redefine real estate in the consumer’s favor. For this report, we focused on employee real estate agents, but Redfin also employs support professionals to schedule tours, coordinate closings and activate listings.  

How Redfin Agents are Paid

Unlike traditional real estate agents, who tend to be independent contractors working solely on commission, Redfin agents are employees. As such, Redfin agents are paid a salary and earn bonuses. Redfin agents also earn premium healthcare benefits, paid time off and parental leave. Redfin surveys every customer and posts every review online. The amount of the bonus the agent earns depends on these reviews as well as the price of the home.1

Redfin-Agent Pay More than Double that of the Industry

To get the best sense for what Redfin agents earn once they’ve completed training and are up to speed, we looked at agents who worked at least nine months out of the 2017 calendar year. For this group, the median annualized pay was $90,166. This includes salary, bonuses, and stock-based compensation. More than 40 percent of these Redfin agents earned Redfin stock. These figures do not include the value of benefits, which are covered later.

In 2017, traditional real estate agents earned a median net take-home pay of $43,625 based on a Redfin analysis. Our analysis included only agents who closed between three and 150 deals in the same markets as Redfin. To see details of how Redfin and non-Redfin agent pay was calculated, refer to the methodology at the end of this report.

Top Redfin Agents Earn 30% More than the 85th Percentile of Others in the Industry

In 2017, the 85th percentile of Redfin agents earned $153,017, meaning 15 percent of Redfin agents earn this or more, while the 85th percentile of agents at other brokerages earned $119,986, in the same markets.

Redfin Agent Pay vs. Non-Redfin Agent Pay
Redfin Non-Redfin % Difference
Median $90,166 $43,625 +107%
85th Percentile $153,017 $119,986 +28%
*Includes Redfin agents who worked at least nine months between January and December 2017, and traditional agents who closed between three and 150 transactions during the same time period.

The Value of Redfin Benefits

Redfin pays an average of just under $20,000 per agent per year on benefits and other expenses. This includes comprehensive healthcare coverage, paid vacation and parental leave, payroll taxes for Medicare and Social Security, licensing, association and MLS dues and fees, continuing education, mileage reimbursement, equipment including laptops and printers and mobile service.

Traditional real estate agents pay for all of this out of their own pockets, as well as self-employment taxes.

Top-performing Redfin agents also have the opportunity to earn an annual international vacation for the agent and a guest, all expenses paid. This trip is valued at $6,500, and past destinations included Barcelona and Thailand.

In addition, Redfin agents meet most of their customers through Redfin’s website and app, so they can devote their time and energy to helping their customers, instead of marketing themselves. While agents with traditional brokerages can pay thousands of dollars per month for leads on third-party advertising sites, Redfin agents have no marketing expenses.

Redfin agents receive regular training and have a variety of professional development opportunities. They receive regular in-person and virtual training from Redfin’s dedicated training team on a range of topics including customer service best practices, legal and compliance updates, industry news and how to use new Redfin tools and technology. Every agent reports to a team manager, whose primary focus is developing, supporting and coaching a team of five to 15 agents.

Mission and Culture: It’s More than the Money

“The only way to deliver the best service is to employ the best agents,” said Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman. “At every Redfin board meeting, the first issue we address is what Redfin is doing to be the best employer in real estate. Every year we try to get better, through investments in technology, support staff and culture, but also by paying people well.”

Redfin agents work as part of a team that includes support agents who field inquiries from customers, and transaction coordinators who manage the details and paperwork of a sale. Agents also work directly with software developers to create tools and technology that make their jobs easier and more efficient.

At Redfin, agents and real estate support staff also have opportunity to advance within the company. In some cases, this means moving to areas outside of real estate operations. Following are just a few examples of employees who have started out at entry level or junior positions and advanced their careers within Redfin.

  • Anna Nevares began as a Redfin agent in San Diego and has steadily advanced into bigger management roles. She currently oversees Redfin’s operations in Northern California, Nevada and San Diego and leads important strategic projects within the company.
  • Chelsea Goyer started as a transaction coordinator with Redfin in 2007, an entry-level role. Today, she is a corporate executive, as vice president of ‎recruiting, Partner Programs & MLS relations.
  • Marshall Park started with Redfin as an agent in the Washington, D.C. area. His career has grown with the company and he now oversees Redfin’s field operations across the Mid-Atlantic, including Virginia, Washington, D.C., and New Jersey.
  • After a career as an attorney, Mia Simon made the move to real estate. She joined Redfin as an agent and has quickly progressed within the company and now leads Redfin’s team in the Bay Area.
  • Paul Reid spent his first few years with Redfin as a top agent in Orange County, Calif. before leading Redfin’s launch in the Inland Empire. He then developed and helped launch Redfin Now, Redfin’s experimental program that purchases homes directly from sellers. In 2017, Paul took on the new challenge of launching Redfin in Boise.
  • Rachel Musiker started her career as a coordinator in Washington, D.C. Today she’s a senior manager on Redfin’s communications team, which includes overseeing Redfin media relations and all of the housing market research published on this blog.
  • Taylor Connolly began as a Redfin agent in 2007, and progressed to team manager, then Maryland market manager, and finally to district manager overseeing Redfin’s operations across multiple states in the Northeast and South. Taylor has also served as an innovation manager for Redfin real estate operations, surfacing ideas from the field, developing new strategies and rolling out initiatives across the company.
  • Tom Lewis started as a Redfin agent in Washington, D.C. and was promoted to broker and market manager, with responsibility for the company’s fast growth in D.C. Tom then moved to Philadelphia to manage and build that market as well. His latest promotion is managing Redfin’s support operations for the East Coast.

Education Levels

It’s worth noting the majority of Redfin agents have a college degree, but a college degree is not required. Based on a random sample of 100 Redfin agents, 61 percent have a bachelor’s degree or higher, 25 percent have either earned an associate’s degree or completed some college, and 10 percent have completed high school as their highest level of education. Our agent workforce is slightly more educated than the industry as a whole, based on data from the National Association of Realtors. However, Redfin employs many excellent agents who do not have a college degree. We don’t know of many large companies that offer this kind of earning potential, along with great benefits, training and advancement opportunities to folks without a college degree.  

Highest Level of Education Redfin NAR
High School 10% 7%
Some College 11% 31%
Associate’s Degree 14% 12%
Bachelor’s Degree 55% 31%
Some Graduate School 1% 6%
Masters 5% 13%
Unstated 4% NA

Recognizing a diverse, inclusive workforce is vital to our mission, Redfin seeks talent from all backgrounds in terms of education, military service, age, gender, ethnicity and sexual orientation. Building a workforce that reflects the diverse composition of our customers and the communities we serve is a priority and ongoing effort for Redfin.

How Does Redfin Agent Pay Compare to Other Professions?

For comparison, we looked at how Redfin-agent pay stacks up to that of other industries. Using data from PayScale, we found the national median pay for different jobs across industries. Redfin agents outearn a wide variety of professionals. Senior Project Managers in Construction and IT earn more than the median Redfin agent, however those jobs often require more education and professional experience at the start.

Job Title National Median Salary
Elementary School Teacher $43,591
Retail Store Manager $45,227
Police Officer $49,979
Registered Nurse $61,799
Master Electrician $62,737
Senior Accountant $64,599
Redfin Agent (National Median) $90,166
Senior Project Manager in Construction $105,997
Senior Project Manager in IT $110,937

Interested in a Career with Redfin?

We are hiring. The company is looking for people of all backgrounds who have high standards and are passionate about serving customers. Check out our careers page or email our recruiting team to learn more. 

METHODOLOGY

Redfin Agent Pay

Redfin employee agent compensation figures include salary, bonuses, and stock-based compensation for the full 2017 calendar year. We annualized full-year pay for agents who worked more than nine months but less than 12 months. We only included agents who work full-time with customers. Agents in management roles, who work with some customers, but also lead teams, were not included.

Non-Redfin Agent Pay

Using MLS data, we first summed individual agents’ sales volume from January 2017 through December 2017. We excluded agents who closed fewer than three home sales in the year, assuming they were part-time or new agents. We also excluded agents who closed more than 150 deals in the year assuming they were offering a limited service, representing a bank, or leading a team, with whom the agent would share commissions.

We then estimated gross commission by multiplying sales volume by 2.56 percent commission based on 2016 data from RealTrends, which estimated an average combined commission of 5.12 percent. We then calculated an 80 percent/20 percent brokerage split. There are a variety of broker/agent arrangements, however, the National Association of Realtors says that most agents had a commission-split structure with their broker. While commission splits vary, we assumed an 80/20 split, with the agent receiving 80 percent of the gross commission, and the brokerage receiving 20 percent. This is a generous assumption, given that Realogy, the largest U.S. real estate company, estimated its average commission split would be approximately 70/30 in 2017.

Median expenses by income, as reported by the National Association of Realtors 2017 Member Profile in the table below, were subtracted from gross commissions to generate net commission estimates for each agent. Non-Redfin agent compensation percentiles were then computed on net commission estimates.

ANNUAL REAL ESTATE EXPENSES IN 2016

Gross Income Median Real Estate Expenses
Less than $10,000 $1,640
$10,000 to $24,999 $3,650
$25,000 to $34,999 $4,900
$35,000 to $49,999 $6,590
$50,000 to $74,999 $8,570
$75,000 to $99,999 $15,000
$100,000 to $149,999 $15,000
$150,000 or more $35,220

Redfin Agent Education Levels

We randomly sampled the application materials of 100 Redfin agents and assumed that if they stated a college or university name and degree, they completed that degree. If they wrote a university and did not specify a degree, we confirmed via LinkedIn. If we couldn’t confirm degree status, which happened in two instances, we assigned them “Some college”. Industry-wide education levels came from the National Association of Realtors 2017 Member Profile.


1A buyers’ agent’s bonus is based on the list price, in addition to customer satisfaction, so the agent is free to negotiate for her buyer. A listing agent’s bonus is based on the final sale price of the home, so the agent has an incentive to maximize the sale price, not just go for a quick sale.

The post How Much Do Redfin Agents Earn? appeared first on Redfin Real-Time.

Luxury Home Prices Up 7 Percent in the Fourth Quarter

0
0

Stock market gains and soaring investor confidence set the stage for high demand for luxury homes as 2017 came to a close. Luxury home prices rose 7.4 percent year over year to an average of $1.76 million in the fourth quarter of 2017.

The Redfin analysis tracks home sales in more than 1,000 cities across the country and defines the luxury market as the top 5 percent most expensive homes sold in the city in each quarter. The average price for non-luxury homes was $333,000, up 6 percent compared to a year earlier.

Average Home Prices

Persistent demand along with shrinking supply contributed to the price increase. The number of homes for sale priced at or above $1 million fell 23.8 percent compared to the same period last year, marking three consecutive quarters of declines in luxury supply.  

The number of homes priced at or above $5 million followed the same trend, down 23.4 percent.

“The stock market hit all-time highs with gains in nearly every sector last quarter, instilling confidence among the wealthiest homebuyers,” said Redfin chief economist Nela Richardson. “As a result, we saw double-digit growth in luxury home sales in the last months of the year.”

Sales of homes priced at or above $1 million were up 15.2 percent from a year ago, and sales of homes priced at or above $5 million were up 13.7 percent.

Luxury homes moved off the market quickly, typically finding a buyer in an average of 75 days, eight fewer days than in the fourth quarter of 2016.

Q4 Market Summary Luxury Market (Top 5%) Rest of Market (Bottom 95%)
Average Sale Price $1.76 million $333,000
Average Sale Price YoY 7.4% 6.1%
Average Sale Price QoQ 3.1% -0.9%
Average Days on Market 75 59
Days on Market YoY 8 fewer days than last year 7 fewer days than last year
Percent of Homes that Sold Above List Price 1.5% 20.9%

Biggest Winners

A number of Florida beachfront communities saw significant gains in luxury sale prices, a trend that continued from last quarter. For seven Florida cities, the average sale price of luxury homes increased by more than 25 percent year over year. In Sarasota and Delray Beach, luxury prices shot up 45.6 percent and 41.3 percent respectively.

“We are seeing sellers and developers become more realistic about pricing, attracting buyers to the negotiating table,” said Aaron Drucker, Redfin’s market manager for South Florida. “Plus, when you add luxury homebuyers’ overall confidence in the economy, a roaring stock market, and passage of tax reform that benefits the ultra wealthy, it’s a recipe for sales.”

Delray Beach, which topped the list of biggest losers in our last report, saw a dramatic turnaround because of two main factors. An unusually weak fourth quarter in 2016 and Delray Beach’s relatively small number of luxury sales each quarter account for larger swings in average sale price year over year.

Biggest Winners Luxury Market (Top 5%) Rest of Market (Bottom 95%)
City Average Sale Price YoY Change Average Sale Price YoY Change
Sarasota, FL $2,541,000 45.6% $371,000 32.0%
Delray Beach, FL $2,588,000 41.3% $246,000 4.2%
Enterprise, NV $1,265,000 34.9% $298,000 12.5%
Roswell, GA $1,155,000 31.1% $376,000 7.1%
Boca Raton, FL $2,647,000 28.4% $357,000 14.1%
Vero Beach, FL $1,568,000 27.3% $251,000 12.6%
Miami, FL $1,981,000 27.2% $308,000 8.5%
Fort Lauderdale, FL $3,516,000 26.3% $390,000 12.7%
West Palm Beach, FL $1,429,000 25.1% $212,000 11.6%
San Jose, CA $2,356,000 22.8% $992,000 20.7%

Biggest Losers

Only six cities that Redfin tracks showed year over year declines in average sale price, three of which are in California.

San Francisco posted the largest year-over-year decline in luxury home prices, down 12 percent to an average $5.03 million.

While the strong stock market boosted confidence in other markets, some would-be luxury buyers in San Francisco held back.

“The luxury market in San Francisco slowed through 2017,” said Miriam Westberg, a Redfin agent from San Francisco. “An unusually low number of initial public offerings among local companies meant fewer cash-flush buyers. Competition, and therefore prices, dropped as many affluent buyers opted to invest in the stock market instead.”

The average sale price for luxury homes in Austin dropped 6.2 percent compared to last year, while prices in the rest of Austin’s housing market increased 2.7 percent. Luxury homes in Austin spent 104 days on the market on average, while its lower priced segment sold nearly twice as fast, in 57 days on average.

While luxury prices fell in the cities listed below, prices for homes in the rest of the market continued to climb.

Biggest Losers Luxury Market (Top 5%) Rest of Market (Bottom 95%)
City Average Sale Price YoY Change Average Sale Price YoY Change
San Francisco, CA $5,033,000 -12.0% $1,363,000 8.7%
Austin, TX $1,550,000 -6.2% $380,000 2.7%
Tampa, FL $1,079,000 -5.8% $238,000 4.8%
Long Beach, CA $1,510,000 -5.6% $537,000 9.1%
Los Angeles, CA $4,748,000 -1.2% $780,000 9.4%
Scottsdale, AZ $2,052,000 -1.2% $465,000 6.2%

Most Expensive Sales

Curious about the most expensive homes sold last quarter? Take a peek at the top-five most expensive sales of 2017’s fourth quarter:

  1. This ultra modern Bel Air estate sold for $41 million and features panoramic views from Downtown LA to the Pacific Ocean.
  2. This Orange County villa sits on 12.47 and sold for just $1 shy of $40 million.
  3. Renowned architect Paul McClean’s masterpiece nestled in the notorious Los Angeles Bird Streets sold for $32.5 million.
  4. $29.1 million bought this 8 bedroom, 12.5 bathroom estate and its 300 feet of private Palm Beach, Florida oceanfront.
  5. From retractable glass ceilings to vanishing pocket doors, this Beverly Hills beauty features a number of modern design elements for its $26.8 million price tag.

Visit the Redfin Data Center to find more housing market data for metro areas around the country.

Methodology: Redfin tracks the most expensive 5 percent of homes sold in more than 1,000 U.S. cities and compares price changes to the bottom 95 percent of homes in those cities. Analysis is based on multiple-listing and county recorder sales data in markets served by Redfin. To determine luxury market winners and losers, we looked at cities with at least 40 luxury sales in the quarter and an average luxury sale price of $1 million or higher.

The post Luxury Home Prices Up 7 Percent in the Fourth Quarter appeared first on Redfin Real-Time.

Nine of Redfin’s 10 Hottest Neighborhoods of 2018 are in San Jose

0
0

Redfin’s 2018 Hottest Neighborhoods report shines light on a migration trend happening within the San Francisco Bay Area. We talk a lot about tech workers leaving Silicon Valley in search of affordability, but our Hottest Neighborhoods algorithm, which ranks neighborhoods based on increases in favorites and visits to home listings on Redfin.com, reveals that many aren’t going very far. Instead, they’re following tech companies like Google and Apple to downtown San Jose and nearby Sunnyvale and Cupertino. The increased demand has already begun to put pressure on San Jose’s housing market, which in December had the shortest supply, higher price growth (to a median home sale price of $1.1 million) and a faster pace of home sales than any other market. And now San Jose has another badge of housing-market honor to pin on its chest: nine of Redfin’s 10 Hottest Neighborhoods of 2018 are in the San Jose metro area.

“While the San Francisco peninsula has traditionally been the hottest of the hot places, we’re seeing it become unaffordable for even the tech giants that helped create its demand in the first place,” said Redfin Silicon Valley agent Kalena Masching. “The result has been a tech-worker migration to the South Bay charged by people looking for relative affordability, highly rated schools, short commutes and access to jobs.”

Read on for the 10 Hottest Neighborhoods, which all happen to be in the Bay Area, or scroll down for Redfin’s Hottest Neighborhoods Within Reach, which used a modified methodology to identify increasingly popular neighborhoods that are more affordable and as a result, more geographically diverse. We have also included the top three Hottest Neighborhoods for 49 metro areas at the bottom of the report.

Redfin 2018 Hottest Neighborhoods

1. Bucknall, San Jose, CA

Median Sale Price (Dec. 2017): $1,565,000
Average Sale-to-List Price Ratio (Dec. 2017): 123.8%
Percent of Homes that Sold Above List Price (Dec. 2017): 100%

“Bucknall is hotter than ever; buyers should be prepared to act fast as the typical home goes off the market in just eight days,” said Redfin Silicon Valley agent Kalena Masching. “Bucknall has a ton of single-family homes, which sets it apart from many neighborhoods in the area that have more mixed-use or multi-family homes. Bucknall borders the Saratoga Westgate shopping plaza and has easy access to five grocery stores, multiple gyms and yoga studios, shopping, highly rated schools and a movie theater to help keep people entertained.”

2. Cambrian, San Jose, CA

Median Sale Price (Dec. 2017): $1,244,000
Average Sale-to-List Price Ratio (Dec. 2017): 118.0%
Percent of Homes that Sold Above List Price (Dec. 2017): 100%

“Homebuyers flock to Cambrian because of its easy access to public transit and the freeways, its proximity to downtown Campbell and the iconic Willow Glen and its highly rated schools,” said Redfin San Jose agent Kimberly Douglas. “Compared to other neighborhoods in San Jose, you get more home for your money. Locals enjoy evening farmers markets in the spring and fall, many public parks and greenspaces, and the nearby Camden community center, which offers lots of recreational activities for kids and adults.”

3. White Oak, San Jose, CA

Median Sale Price (Dec. 2017): $1,010,000
Average Sale-to-List Price Ratio (Dec. 2017): 105.7%
Percent of Homes that Sold Above List Price (Dec. 2017): 66.7%

“White Oak is a neighborhood that many first-time homebuyers choose because it has a lower price point and is close to vibrant Downtown Campbell and Downtown Los Gatos,” said Redfin San Jose agent Kimberly Douglas. “There are several highly rated schools in White Oak, and the Los Gatos Creek Trail is a popular spot for after-work hikes or a leisurely weekend stroll.”

4. Ortega, San Jose, CA

Median Sale Price (Dec. 2017): $1,920,000
Average Sale-to-List Price Ratio (Dec. 2017): 116.5%
Percent of Homes that Sold Above List Price (Dec. 2017): 100%

“Homebuyers like Ortega because of its proximity to the Cupertino and Santa Clara Apple campus, its highly rated schools and its access to highways 101 and 280,” said Redfin Silicon Valley agent Martin Garcia. “People also enjoy the abundance of grocery stores and unique, local restaurants, Ortega Park or the Community Center are popular places for residents to stretch their legs and get some exercise.”  

5. West Santa Clara, San Jose, CA

Median Sale Price (Dec. 2017): $1,237,500
Average Sale-to-List Price Ratio (Dec. 2017): 116.1%
Percent of Homes that Sold Above List Price (Dec. 2017): 90.3%

“West Santa Clara has a lot of perks, and often times the people that seek it out travel a lot and appreciate the proximity to the San Jose Airport,” said Redfin Silicon Valley agent Martin Garcia. “It’s also really close to Koreatown, which has karaoke, incredible restaurants that infuse American and Korean flavors into fun dishes and grocery stores that sell unique-Korean ingredients.”

6. Sunnyvale West, San Jose, CA

Median Sale Price (Dec. 2017): $1,945,000
Average Sale-to-List Price Ratio (Dec. 2017): 118.3%
Percent of Homes that Sold Above List Price (Dec. 2017): 91.3%

“Sunnyvale West has historic, century-old homes intertwined with new construction, giving the neighborhood a real old-meets-new feel that you can’t really find anywhere else in San Jose,” said Redfin Silicon Valley agent Chad Eng. “People like the neighborhood because of its proximity to the Caltrain station and downtown Sunnyvale, which has really been revitalized in recent years. There are lots of community events in the summer, like concerts and movies in the streets, farmers markets and jazz bands that play along the sidewalk.”

7. Lakewood, San Jose, CA

Median Sale Price (Dec. 2017): $1,200,000
Average Sale-to-List Price Ratio (Dec. 2017): 121.3%
Percent of Homes that Sold Above List Price (Dec. 2017): 92.3%

“Lakewood is a good commuter neighborhood and one of the few remaining places in the San Jose metro area where people can get a home for less than $1 million without getting deep into San Jose or going to the East Bay,” said Redfin Silicon Valley agent Jason Burkhart. “It’s close to Mission College and a fairly new shopping plaza with a beautiful movie theater, small grocery store and plenty of restaurants and pubs to keep up with demand. The neighborhood is also close to the new 49ers stadium and California’s Great America, which some people love but others see as a nuisance because of the added traffic and noise.”

8. Sunnyside, San Francisco, CA

Median Sale Price (Dec. 2017): $1,272,500
Average Sale-to-List Price Ratio (Dec. 2017): 125.0%
Percent of Homes that Sold Above List Price (Dec. 2017): 89.5%

“Sunnyside is a popular spot because it’s a bit more affordable than Glen Park, but still has easy access to 280 and Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART),” said Redfin San Francisco agent Miriam Westberg. “In recent months, homes Redfin listed in the neighborhood went under contract in as little as two days because there were so many well-qualified buyers ready to pounce on this desirable location.”

9. Blacow, San Jose, CA

Median Sale Price (Dec. 2017): $1,005,000
Average Sale-to-List Price Ratio (Dec. 2017): 109.4%
Percent of Homes that Sold Above List Price (Dec. 2017): 91.7%

“Blacow is a neighborhood in Fremont that is known for its relative affordability and schools in the areas that rankings have been increasing,” said Redfin Fremont agent Kat Said. “People also really enjoy the new construction homes in the area and all the nearby places to shop. One hot spot is NewPark Mall, which has some of the best restaurants in town and is a short car ride away from most homes in Blacow.”

10. Rex Manor, San Jose, CA

Median Sale Price (Dec. 2017): $1,500,000
Average Sale-to-List Price Ratio (Dec. 2017): 114.4%
Percent of Homes that Sold Above List Price (Dec. 2017): 83.9%

“Rex Manor has been gaining traction as a desirable neighborhood, where you’ll see many residents riding their bikes to Google, Shoreline Park and the Shoreline Amphitheatre, where people can enjoy all sorts of live music and events,” said Redfin San Jose agent Kalena Masching. “The area still has some relatively affordable homes, and we’re seeing a lot of attention from the investment community where people come in and buy up the older homes under 1,400 square feet and turn them into modern, technology-filled homes that sell like hotcakes.”

2018’s Hottest Neighborhoods Within Reach

While well-established tech cities continue to become more and more expensive, we expect to see many more large companies build additional headquarters in new cities—like we’ve seen with Amazon and most recently Apple. That got us thinking, if tech companies are chasing talent and talent is chasing affordability, what hot places are there that don’t come with a hefty price tag like we see in the Bay Area? We decided to compile a second list of Hottest Neighborhoods with a price cap at $286,700, which was the national median sale price in December 2017.

The result was a more geographically diverse set of neighborhoods. People looking for more affordable homes in Washington D.C. and Seattle can turn to neighborhoods like Hillcrest, Deanwood and Riverview, which have less expensive homes but also plenty of greenspace and access to job centers. Our “Within Reach” ranking also surfaced several neighborhoods across the Midwest, with hot hoods in Columbus, Chicago, Milwaukee, Minneapolis and St. Louis cracking the top 10.

Another trend we noticed with this list is that homebuyers are not sacrificing livability for the sake of affordability.

“The Hottest Neighborhoods within reach list has places chock-full of amenities and diverse housing types,” said Redfin chief economist Nela Richardson. “Features like easy commutes, farmer’s markets and proximity to parks or the beach all represent livability characteristics that many people value when searching for homes. Also, these areas have a mix of single family homes, condos and townhouses, which make the neighborhoods accessible to a wide range of incomes.”

Redfin-2018HottestNeighborhoods-Hero2

1. Hillcrest, Washington D.C.

Median Sale Price (Dec. 2017): $125,000
Average Sale-to-List Price Ratio (Dec. 2017): 96.8%
Percent of Homes that Sold Above List Price (Dec. 2017): 25.0%

“I just helped a family purchase a pre-war home in Hillcrest with plenty of original charm and space to grow,” said Redfin D.C. agent Will Hirzy. “Hillcrest is one of the only neighborhoods in the city that offers single-family homes on decent-sized lots for an affordable price. Buyers are drawn to this leafy, residential corner of the city because it’s affordable, while still convenient to Capitol Hill, Navy Yard and Downtown.”

2. Deanwood, Washington D.C.

Median Sale Price (Dec. 2017): $248,500
Average Sale-to-List Price Ratio (Dec. 2017): 100.5%
Percent of Homes that Sold Above List Price (Dec. 2017): 50.0%

“Deanwood and many of the neighborhoods east of the Anacostia River are seeing increasing homebuyer and investor interest,” said Redfin D.C. agent Rory Obletz. “The area has homes to suit everyone, including townhomes, single-family homes and some condos. Affordability is a huge draw for buyers who are amazed at how much more space they can afford in Deanwood than in other parts of the city. Deanwood has a metro station that makes commuting downtown a breeze and new developments are making this area more walkable.”

3. Riverview, Seattle, WA

Median Sale Price (Dec. 2017): $270,000
Average Sale-to-List Price Ratio (Dec. 2017): 100.7%
Percent of Homes that Sold Above List Price (Dec. 2017): 54.6%

“Riverview is one of the more affordable options in Seattle that has easy access to I-5 and Highway 99,” said Redfin Seattle agent Thomas Hobbs Jr. “Being that it’s a bit outside of the city, it has lots of beautiful green space nearby. Grandview Off-Leash Dog Park covers 34 acres and is a fantastic place for people to walk their dogs, and Russell Woods Park and Riverfront Park are both also a quick drive away.”

4. Misty Meadows, Columbus, OH

Median Sale Price (Dec. 2017): $161,500
Average Sale-to-List Price Ratio (Dec. 2017): 99.3%
Percent of Homes that Sold Above List Price (Dec. 2017): 20.0%

“Misty Meadows is a small suburban community in Columbus with an 80s vibe, made up of mostly one- and two-story single family homes,” said Redfin Columbus agent Joseph Wahlsmith. “People like Misty Meadows because it is easy to get to, affordable, there are plenty of restaurants and shopping nearby and it is located in the Dublin City School District. Nearby is the Ohio State University’s Don Scott airport (named after famous WWII Hero and local football star) where people go for lunch and then visit the small watchtower to view small planes taking off and landing. Carriage Place Park where people gather for picnics, to play tennis and enjoy the outdoors, is also nearby.”

5. Fairmount, Providence, RI

Median Sale Price (Dec. 2017): $170,000
Average Sale-to-List Price Ratio (Dec. 2017): 98.2%
Percent of Homes that Sold Above List Price (Dec. 2017): 30.8%

“Fairmount is a neighborhood in Woonsocket, which is a town north of Providence, near the border of Rhode Island and Massachusetts,” said Redfin Providence agent Shelly D’Amico. “Woonsocket buyers have their choice of home styles as the area offers new construction, trendy urban loft properties in renovated mill buildings and classic New England colonial homes as well. Woonsocket offers more affordable homes than Providence. Likewise, people who work in Boston are increasingly coming south to Rhode Island towns in search of affordability.”

6. Stevens Square, Minneapolis, MN

Median Sale Price (Dec. 2017): $116,000
Average Sale-to-List Price Ratio (Dec. 2017): 98.5%
Percent of Homes that Sold Above List Price (Dec. 2017): 33.3%

“Stevens Square is heating up now because it’s affordable and near Central Minneapolis, which is an area that has been off the charts on fire for awhile now,” said Redfin Minneapolis agent Chris Prescott. “Stevens Square gives homebuyers an avenue for cheaper downtown living, because it’s just across the freeway from the Convention Center and other amenities located in the heart of Minneapolis.”

7. Brewer’s Hill, Milwaukee, WI

Median Sale Price (Dec. 2017): $260,000
Average Sale-to-List Price Ratio (Dec. 2017): 97.4%
Percent of Homes that Sold Above List Price (Dec. 2017): 22.2%

“People love the homes in Brewer’s Hill because they have a lot of old-world charm and character for a lower price than you’d find in other nearby neighborhoods,” said Redfin Milwaukee agent Ashley Lamb. “This is also a spot with lots of up-and-coming restaurants, shops and boutiques nearby, which is a huge perk for homeowners in the area.”

8. Country Lakes, Chicago, IL

Median Sale Price (Dec. 2017): $207,250
Average Sale-to-List Price Ratio (Dec. 2017): 97.3%
Percent of Homes that Sold Above List Price (Dec. 2017): 0%

“Country Lakes has really continued its momentum from last year, when Redfin named it the ninth hottest neighborhood in the country,” said Redfin Chicago agent Michael Rothe. “We’re still seeing new homes being built because most lots are within a mile from the train, and there are so many paths to get to transit easily and peacefully. Other perks include highly rated schools, easy access to I-88 and affordable homes.”

9. Downtown St. Louis, St. Louis, MO

Median Sale Price (Dec. 2017): $139,900
Average Sale-to-List Price Ratio (Dec. 2017): 95.9%
Percent of Homes that Sold Above List Price (Dec. 2017): 4.4%

“Downtown St. Louis provides the best of cool and chic loft living,” said Redfin St. Louis agent Tamika Evans. “Many of the residential and commercial lofts in Downtown St.Louis boast unusually flexible layouts with architectural perks that provide classic, relaxed and sophisticated living spaces. Downtown has a high Walk Score of 89 and is home to myriad cultural, dining and entertainment venues.”

10. South Coast, Orange County, CA

Median Sale Price: $277,000
Average Sale-to-List Price Ratio: 99.9%
Percent of Homes that Sold Above List Price: 40.7%

“South Coast’s convenient proximity to both Interstate 405 and State Route 55 make getting to Irvine and Santa Ana a breeze,” said Redfin Orange County agent Marc Raine. “If you’re a frequent traveler, John Wayne Airport is just a 10-minute drive, and you can often make it to Newport Beach in under 20 minutes. There’s always lots to do in the area, with the South Coast Plaza offering great shopping nearby, plus highly rated Mexican, Japanese and seasonal American fare just minutes away. South Coast is a great, affordable alternative to neighborhoods in Irvine.”

What Makes a Neighborhood Hot
Redfin’s Hottest Neighborhoods is a prediction based on the most recent growth we’ve seen in page views and favorites on Redfin.com. We checked in with Redfin agents around the country to find out what’s been driving these trends.

For more downloadable housing market stats, visit the Redfin Data Center.

The Hottest Neighborhoods of 2018 by Metropolitan Area

In addition to the top 10 Hottest Neighborhoods nationwide and Hottest Neighborhoods Within Reach, we picked three neighborhoods in each of the largest metro areas that are poised to become some of the most desirable places in 2018. Use the links below to jump to a market, or scroll down through the whole list. All data is from December 2017.

Atlanta, GAAustin, TXBakersfield, CA Baltimore, MDBoston, MA Buffalo, NY Charlotte, NCChicago, ILCincinnati, OHCleveland, OHColorado Springs, COColumbus, OHDallas-Fort Worth, TXDenver, CODetroit, MIFort Lauderdale, FLHampton Roads, VAHouston, TXJacksonville, FLKansas City, MOLas Vegas, NVLos Angeles, CAMemphis, TNMiami, FLMilwaukee, WIMinneapolis-St. Paul, MNNew Orleans, LA Oakland, CAOrange County, CAOrlando, FLPhiladelphia, PA Phoenix, AZPittsburgh, PAPortland, ORProvidence, RIQueens, NY | Riverside-San Bernardino, CASacramento, CASan Antonio, TXSan Diego, CASan Francisco, CASan Jose, CASeattle, WASt. Louis, MOTampa, FLTucson, AZWashington D.C.West Palm Beach, FL

 

 

Metro Area Rank Neighborhood Median Sale Price Average Sale-to-List Price Ratio % of Homes that Sold Above List Price
Median Days on Market
Atlanta, GA
1 Hunter Hills $57,000

92.0%

23.1% 21
2 Princeton Lakes $218,000 96.8% 15.4% 52
3 Washington Park $85,000 102.7% 43.8% 37
Austin, TX
1 South Lamar $422,250

97.7%

5.4% 55
2 North Lamar $225,500 96.9% 16.7% 16
3 North University $363,650 94.4% 11.1% 40
Bakersfield, CA
1 Haggin Oaks $254,000

100.0%

0.0% 15
2 Tevis Ranch $240,000 100.0% 0.0% 29
3 The Seasons $214,000 100.0% 0.0% 38
Baltimore, MD
1 Charles Village $254,000

98.4%

16.7% 43
2 Dorchester $91,250 106.3% 33.3% 31
3 Roland Park $620,000 96.3% 0.0% 28
Boston, MA
1 Downtown Medford $534,750

102.0%

50.0% 12
2 Newton Corner $1,015,000 100.7% 48.4% 10
3 Suffolk Square $423,500 104.6% 66.7% 10
Buffalo, NY
1 Abbott McKinley $142,994

100.1%

47.1% 23
2 Elmwood $315,000 97.3% 19.5% 32
3 Maryvale $105,500 100.6% 45.2% 15
Charlotte, NC
1 Pawtuckett $141,050

102.1%

58.3% 60
2 Fourth Ward $260,000 97.5% 5.7% 66
3 Oakdale North $198,000 99.4% 20.0% 62
Chicago, IL
1 Country Lakes $207,250

97.3%

0.0% 57
2 Belmont Gardens $278,950 97.5% 15.0% 73
3 North Lawndale $127,000 93.0% 13.3% 64
Cincinnati, OH
1 Norwood $137,950

94.6%

4.1% 63
2 Avondale $110,000 94.6% 11.1% 64
3 Mount Auburn $101,000 92.6% 11.8% 68
Cleveland, OH
1 Cedar Fairmont $319,000

97.9%

6.3% 53
2 Warehouse District $146,500 95.4% 0.0% 122
3 Bay Village $230,000 96.8% 16.1% 47
1 Garden Ranch $255,000

101.2%

44.4% 16
2 Venetian Village $227,500 98.8% 25.0% 26
3 Old Farm $269,750 96.6% 0.0% 59
Columbus, OH
1 Misty Meadows $161,500

99.3%

20.0% 51
2 Central Clintonville $305,500 97.1% 6.3% 62
3 Strawberry Farms $169,400 100.1% 54.6% 40
1 Waterview $315,000  n/a

0.0%

72
2 Alamo Heights $199,900  n/a 0.0% 46
3 Western Hills North $169,900  n/a 0.0% 49
Denver, CO
1 Green Mountain Park $475,000

99.0%

22.2% 28
2 Applewood $473,500 97.3% 8.0% 55
3 Regis $441,000 100.4% 54.8% 46
Detroit, MI
1 Southwest Detroit $35,000

96.7%

24.4% 34
2 Pleasant Ridge $245,000 97.9% 30.0% 28
3 Northwest Warren $156,700 98.7% 27.0% 23
1 Royal Land $82,000

95.4%

0.0% 70
2 Carriage Hills $90,550 93.9% 0.0% 73
3 Poinsettia Heights $434,500 95.7% 7.1% 65
1 River Walk $235,000

99.3%

15.4% 71
2 West Ghent $265,000 96.2% 0.0% 100
3 Dunedin $164,000 95.2% 25.0% 37
Houston, TX
1 Lawndale-Wayside $239,000

95.1%

15.8% 49
2 Sea Isle $295,000 95.7% 7.7% 110
3 El Lago $216,000 96.2% 6.7% 34
Jacksonville, FL
1 Deercreek $427,500

96.8%

17.7% 67
2 Southside $260,000 94.0% 0.0% 123
3 University Park $181,750 97.9% 16.7% 31
Kansas City, MO
1 Hyde Park $215,000  n/a

0.0%

39
2 Briarcliff $187,988  n/a 0.0% 35
3 Shawnee $269,925 91.1% 0.0% 36
Las Vegas, NV
1 Summerlin West $459,900

98.4%

13.2% 77
2 Green Valley Ranch $309,000 98.4% 9.9% 58
3 Centennial Hills $258,000 99.0% 26.1% 53
Long Island, NY
1 South Huntington $420,000

96.5%

16.3% 44
2 Manhasset Hills $899,000 98.2% 21.4% 59
3 North Babylon $357,000 98.5% 32.8% 39
Los Angeles, CA
1 Annandale $1,203,500

104.6%

60.0% 34
2 Los Altos North $643,000 100.0% 27.3% 41
3 McNeil $801,000 102.5% 79.0% 43
Memphis, TN
1 Poplar Pines $375,000

96.9%

5.9% 67
2 Germantown $300,050 95.4% 10.7% 61
3 High Point Terrace $252,000 98.3% 23.1% 44
Miami, FL
1 Granada $494,500

99.8%

9.1% 145
2 Sunset West $437,500 93.4% 10.7% 69
3 Little Haiti $205,000 97.6% 17.7% 61
Milwaukee, WI
1 Brewer’s Hill $260,000

97.4%

22.2% 63
2 Murray Hill $185,500 93.3% 0.0% 79
3 Historic Third Ward $247,450 97.6% 10.0% 55
1 Stevens Square $117,000

98.5%

33.3% 55
2 East Harriet $363,000 99.8% 27.8% 36
3 Jordan $145,000 99.9% 40.7% 36
New Orleans, LA
1 East Riverside $499,000

97.2%

7.7% 80
2 Bywater $345,000 93.6% 7.7% 75
3 Pontchartrain Shores $265,000 96.4% 7.7% 84
Oakland, CA
1 Blacow $1,005,000

109.4%

91.7% 10
2 Fairfax $640,000 111.0% 69.2% 20
3 Grand Lake $823,000 112.7% 80.0% 15
1 Stonegate $938,500

99.6%

46.2% 35
2 Portola Springs $875,000 98.4% 15.5% 67
3 Woodbury $800,000 99.3% 31.3% 41
Orlando, FL
1 Richmond Heights $125,000

99.4%

42.9% 15
2 Audubon Park $248,000 97.2% 21.4% 18
3 Falcon Trace $259,000 96.8% 0.0% 73
Philadelphia, PA
1 Fitler Square $715,000

97.2%

11.8% 70
2 Southwest Germantown $99,500 97.7% 37.0% 36
3 Roxborough $240,000 97.9% 11.5% 76
Phoenix, AZ
1 Arcadia $552,500

96.9%

5.7% 55
2 Vistancia $359,000 98.1% 7.1% 58
3 Warner Ranch $331,750 96.7% 6.3% 42
Pittsburgh, PA
1 Mount Washington $132,000

94.4%

13.9% 68
2 Highland Park $315,000 92.5% 0.0% 103
3 Point Breeze $408,500 96.2% 25.0% 61
Portland, OR
1 Hillside $950,000

97.2%

15.4% 47
2 North Tabor $405,000 99.9% 36.4% 46
3 Gresham $280,000 99.6% 36.8% 14
Providence, RI
1 Fairmount $170,000

98.2%

30.8% 27
2 Washington Park $199,000 99.8% 37.5% 60
3 Elmhurst $210,000 98.5% 34.8% 61
Queens, NY
1 Clearview $703,500

97.7%

23.5% 58
2 Maspeth $818,000 96.0% 15.9% 50
3 Briarwood $315,000 97.7% 25.5% 50
1 San Gorgonio $275,000

102.0%

81.8% 38
2 Chase Ranch $511,000 100.3% 63.6% 46
3 Murrieta Highlands $400,000 99.4% 44.4% 30
Sacramento, CA
1 Upper Land Park $458,000

98.6%

33.3% 27
2 Elmhurst $521,500 102.0% 50.0% 11
3 River Park $524,500 99.2% 33.3% 24
San Antonio, TX
1 Helotes $310,000

97.6%

7.7% 65
2 Castle Hills Forest $250,000 98.4% 22.2% 35
3 Woodstone $140,000 98.6% 36.8% 47
San Diego, CA
1 Scripts Ranch $1,375,000

99.1%

17.7% 70
2 Otay Ranch $375,000 98.3% 11.1% 21
3 South Oceanside $737,500 99.2% 25.0% 53
San Francisco, CA
1 Sunnyside $1,275,000

125.0%

89.5% 15
2 Mission Terrace $1,014,500 111.8% 75.0% 15
3 Ingleside $1,100,000 118.1% 76.9% 19
San Jose, CA
1 Bucknall $1,565,000

123.8%

100.0% 11
2 Cambrian $1,244,000 118.0% 100.0% 9
3 White Oak $1,010,000 105.7% 66.7% 14
Seattle, WA
1 First Hill $580,000

103.9%

65.7% 7
2 Central District $544,475 98.2% 0.0% 13
3 Cedar Park $586,000 101.4% 42.1% 15
St. Louis, MO
1 Downtown St. Louis $139,900

95.9%

4.4% 98
2 Shaw Historic District $280,050 98.1% 19.2% 56
3 Benton Park West $61,538 95.2% 26.1% 55
Tampa, FL
1 Island Estate $355,000

94.1%

5.6% 93
2 Greater Woodlawn $347,000 100.0% 25.0% 26
3 Childs Park $65,500 91.4% 17.9% 33
Tucson, AZ
1 Civano $250,000

99.3%

13.8% 63
2 Groves Lincoln Park $138,600 101.2% 35.0% 43
3 Amphi $128,250 95.4% 12.5% 98
Washington, DC
1 Hillcrest $125,000

96.8%

25.0% 42
2 Deanwood $248,500 100.5% 50.0% 21
3 Bluemont $729,000 98.9% 21.1% 26
1 Forest Hill Village $192,450

98.6%

8.3% 72
2 Pheasant Walk $430,000 96.3% 12.5% 47
3 Boca Chase $350,000 97.3% 3.7% 84

The post Nine of Redfin’s 10 Hottest Neighborhoods of 2018 are in San Jose appeared first on Redfin Real-Time.

The Fortress and the Ecosystem

0
0

The annual Swanepoel Trends Report explores the biggest trends in the residential real estate industry. This year, Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman was asked to write the foreword, which you can read in full here. The Swanepoel Trends Report is available for pre-order and will be available on Feb. 1.


It was a strange request.

Out of the blue, a competing broker invited me to lunch. He was on one side of the lake that divides Seattle, and I was on the other, so he and his partner offered to meet on an island in the middle. Driving over the bridge, it bothered me that I was apprehensive. Why should I feel that way?

When I sat down, the broker spread his firm’s training materials before me. He wasn’t arguing that his agents were better than Redfin’s. He only wanted me to know that, for all of Redfin’s claims about prioritizing customers over commissions, his agents were also trained to put customers first. I looked through his materials, which I would have been proud to use to train Redfin’s agents. My face turned pink. I said I was sorry for claiming that Redfin’s agents had different motivations than the agents at his firm. And, though we pay our agents differently, I’ve never made such claims again.

What was most remarkable was what happened next: He accepted the apology. He gave me a chance to change and, over time, to belong to this industry. It’s rare for anyone, a spouse or a friend let alone a rival, to be willing to look at another person in a different light.

That was a decade ago. I still think about that lunch when reading bedtime books to my boys, who often interrupt to ask about each character: “Is he bad or good?” Whatever the moral is supposed to be, the story also trains us from the earliest age to sort people into heroes and villains. The “I” in the story is always the hero. This is why my then-seven-year-old began to recognize one of his harmless classmates as Harry Potter’s nemesis, Draco Malfoy. It’s why partisan differences prevent Congress from passing common-sense laws. It’s why the Packers hate the Vikings. And it’s why the real estate industry has sometimes had a siege mentality, with members of the old guard warily eyeing the barbarians at the gate.

And it’s why the Swanepoel Trends Report is so valuable. This report isn’t a one-sided defense of traditional real estate, technology, real estate’s practitioners or our critics. It’s written with the savvy of an insider and the curiosity of an outsider, so that we can see the forces now affecting our industry that have been hidden in plain sight. It gives us a chance to change, because seeing someone else in a new light is the only way we can also see ourselves in a new light.

The Changes Ahead

There’s plenty to learn about in 2018. The expansionary fiscal policy of the last decade has generated nearly free capital, which has not only funded a run-up in real estate prices but also in real estate technology. In 2013, $451 million was invested in real estate technology startups. It’s projected to be $3 billion in 2017. This is an increase of $300 million from last year, but the number of firms who are getting that money dropped from 277 in 2016 to 61 this year.

The result: a new generation of well-funded potential disruptors is emerging, of Opendoors, OfferPads and Compasses. None so far as I know is vying to build another online portal. No company in a decade has tried to do that. Instead, each has a new way to sell houses, and each is chronicled here, explaining how their business works.

An Ecosystem, Not a Fortress

But what I think is most valuable about this report is that it can be like the lunch I once had on an island in a lake with someone I thought I knew, but didn’t know at all. This report can make us see the old divisions between websites and brokers, technologists and agents, in a new light.

The fortress the real estate industry has built to protect our data has turned us all into prisoners, squinting through arrow slits at a world we have forgotten is ours. Rather than trying to lock away our data, we are for the first time in a decade in the process of ensuring we get credit for it, so that the customers who see our listings everywhere also see us, the agent and the broker, as the authoritative source of information about our local real estate market.

Seizing the future for ourselves is the whole premise of the Swanepoel Trends Report. It analyzes our industry as an ecosystem, rather than a fortress, in which every member contributes to the ecosystem, and each benefits as well. Virtually all our customers use a real estate website, but virtually every photo of every home on these sites was captured by a real estate agent, and conveyed to a database by that agent’s brokerage. Every real estate site is thus the product of a collaboration with a million agents.

In this way, agents and brokers are the industry’s eyes and ears, and also our hands and feet, working hard each day to host tours, negotiate sales, and prepare homes for sale. Above all, we’re the industry’s heart and soul, caring for people who have lost their jobs, their parents or their spouses, who have put everything they own into a U-Haul and begun the drive across the country toward a new life.

And of course, we as the agents and the brokers are the brains: no matter how much we may grumble about our own rules, we’re still the ones who set and enforce them. Technology is the nervous system, connecting customers, agents and listings. As such, technology should benefit the whole ecosystem: the customers, the agents and the brokerages, not just the developers of that technology.

If this hasn’t always been how the industry has worked out, we can change it. This after all is our industry, and we can make it what we want it to be. We can reimagine the relationships between agents, brokers and technology to benefit everyone.

That reimagining starts at least in part here, with a report that surveys everything that’s changing in real estate, and a new way of seeing opportunities as threats, and rivals as partners and maybe even, to use one of Stefan’s favorite words, as friends. So I hope this report shows us all new ways to work with one another, before we get back to the age-old business of beating each other’s brains out over a listing consultation!

The post The Fortress and the Ecosystem appeared first on Redfin Real-Time.

Redfin Housing Demand Index Remained Nearly Flat in December as Supply Continued to Fall

0
0

The Redfin Housing Demand Index remained nearly flat into the end of 2017, falling just 0.6 percent from 128.3 in November to 127.6 in December. The seasonally adjusted number of buyers requesting home tours fell by 3.4 percent while the number making offers fell 1.8 percent from November.

Demand Index January

“Buyer demand is still strong but wilted a bit in the face of low inventory,” said Redfin chief economist Nela Richardson. “The housing market ended 2017 with 170,000 fewer listings than it had a year earlier, which means there were fewer homes for buyers to tour and make offers on. For the fourth consecutive year, inventory will be the major factor shaping the housing market in 2018.”

The Demand Index is based on thousands of Redfin customers requesting home tours and writing offers. The Demand Index is adjusted for Redfin’s market share growth. A level of 100 represents the historical average for the three-year period from January 2013 to December 2015.

Though the Demand Index remained flat month over month, the year-over-year numbers reveal how homebuyer activity has strengthened to a limited extent due to the supply shortage. Compared with December 2016, the Demand Index was up 8.4 percent and the number of buyers requesting tours was up 16.7 percent. Meanwhile, the number of buyers making offers slid 5.9 percent.

The drop in offer activity can be explained by the fact that inventory fell 20 percent year-over-year in December. Not only was this the largest inventory decline recorded since 2014, when we first began tracking the metric for the 15 markets included in the Demand Index, but December marked the 31st consecutive month of falling supply. What’s more, the number of homes newly listed in December fell 5.6 percent from a year earlier. Taken together, these numbers tell us that there were plenty of people in the market to buy a home last month, but there simply weren’t enough homes for everyone to offer on and purchase.

Metro-Level Demand Highlights

Below, we provide a slideshow of local charts for each of the metros tracked by the Redfin Housing Demand Index and highlight noteworthy trends and agent insights from select markets. If you’d like to learn more about a particular market, please email press@redfin.com.

For more detail on the Redfin Demand Index methodology, click here.

The post Redfin Housing Demand Index Remained Nearly Flat in December as Supply Continued to Fall appeared first on Redfin Real-Time.

Boston vs. Philadelphia: A City Showdown

0
0
Redfin Super Bowl Showdown

Boston and Philadelphia are two East Coast cities with a lot of history and patriotic spirit, and the competition between them is hot right now. Not only are the two preparing to duke it out in Super Bowl LII this Sunday, they’re also both on Amazon’s shortlist for the company’s new headquarters.

So… does Boston or Philly have more to offer its resident football fans? To find out, we first talked to Redfin real estate agents from each market to hear what they think about their cities. Here’s what they had to say:

“Philadelphia, the ‘City of Brotherly Love’ and former capital of the United States, is home to the nation’s first zoo and the oldest residential block in the country… not to mention rabid sports fans,” said Philadelphia Redfin agent Erik Lee. “Boston may have had their very own tea party, but this is where our country was founded. The perpetual underdogs in both fact and fiction, Philadelphiansfor better or worsestick by their teams through thick and thin. We may be going up against ‘The Hoodie’ and TB12, but my money rides the Birds’ front 7 and a 53-man roster with the heart of all the Rockys combined.”

“Can you guess which U.S. city tops lists every year for the most educated, healthy and entrepreneurial? Or how about the one that has the most recent professional sports championships? If you guessed Philadelphia, eat another cheesesteak!” said Boston Redfin agent James Gulden. “Boston is the home of the Patriots, the winning-est NFL team in the modern era. They’ll be playing for their sixth championship when they appear in their 10th super bowl — their eighth appearance within the last 17 years. Holy chowder! Philadelphia might have Rocky Balboa, ‘The Italian Stallion’, but Boston has Bill ‘The Hood’ Belichick. Game On!”

Cheesesteaks…chowder…we can’t decide! For a more objective look at both cities, we pulled data from sources like Yelp, U.S. Census and Redfin.com. Here’s what we found out about life in these rival cities.

Philadelphians are More Likely to Own Homes

If you’re tired of the renter life and want to put down roots, Philly is the better city. Fifty-four percent of homes in Philadelphia are owner occupied, according to 2010 U.S. Census data. In Boston, only 34 percent of homes are occupied by the owners, while the majority are rented out.

…Probably Because Homes There are More Affordable

It’s not surprising to see that more people are renting in Boston. The cost of the median home there is $635,000— that’s 111 percent higher than the median home price in Philly, which is $185,000. In addition to having more affordable homes, Philadelphia also has a bigger selection of homes. There are currently 4,706 homes for sale in Philly on Redfin.com, compared to 702 in Boston.

Even Though Philly is Bigger, You Get More Space in Boston

Philadelphia is larger than Boston in both in population and geographics. The city is 141.7 mi² with a population of 1,526,006 according to 2010 Census data, compared to Boston’s 89.63 mi² and population of 617,594. Butyou actually get a little more square footage in Boston. The average Boston home that sold last year was 1,696 ft² compared to 1,334 ft² in Philadelphia. More room for all those Tom Brady jerseys! 

When It Comes To Walkability, Boston Wins (But Not By Much)

If your preferred method of transportation is walking or riding your bike, both cities are great! However, Boston does have a slight edge on Philly in all three categories: Walk Score, Bike Score and Transit Score. You can see each city’s scores below.

Boston

Walk Score: 81
Bike Score: 70
Transit Score: 74

Philadelphia

Walk Score: 79
Bike Score: 68
Transit Score: 67

“Boston is a very accessible city for those who prefer or need to get around without a car. From the T trains, buses and commuter rails, to Zipcar, Uber, Lift and Hubway bike sharing, not to mention plain ol’ walking, Boston is easy to navigate sans automobile,” said Gulden.

Boston is Slightly More Educated

According to 2012-2016 American Community Survey Five-Year Estimates, 85.7 percent of Boston residents have attained a high school diploma or higher. In Philly, 82.6 percent have done the same. Boston also continually earns a spot among the top 10 most-educated cities in the U.S.

Both Have Excellent Food

You can’t go wrong with food in either city. Outside of chowder and cheesesteaks, the two cities offer tons of food options, including excellent ethnic-inspired dishes. Boston’s top-rated restaurant on Yelp, Piperi Mediterranean Grill, serves up Mediterranean-inspired food, while Philly’s top-rated restaurant, Cafe La Maude, offers a French-Lebanese menu.

If you’re looking for great places to watch the big game, here are the 5 best sports bars in each city, as identified by Yelp:

Best Sports Bars in Boston, MA:

The Pour House
The Four’s Restaurant & Sports Bar
Sports Grille Boston
Cask’n Flagon
J.J. Foley’s Cafe

Best Sports Bars in Philadelphia, PA:

McGillin’s Olde Ale House
Cavanaugh’s Rittenhouse
The Bayou Bar & Grill
Chick’s
Woolly Mammoth

Which city are you rooting for?

The post Boston vs. Philadelphia: A City Showdown appeared first on Redfin Real-Time.


The State of the Union: What Role Does Housing Play?

0
0

The U.S. enjoyed the strongest housing market in a decade last year. But in a speech full of economic accolades, President Trump missed an opportunity for a pat on the back. Housing was not mentioned once in his first State of the Union address.

Here are three ways housing helped the economy last year:

1. Unprecedented wealth for homeowners
Homeowners enjoyed record-high home equity in 2017 thanks to strong home price growth and low interest rates. U.S. homeowners were able to withdraw nearly $54 billion dollars in the form of cash-out mortgages, second liens and home equity lines of credit. Home equity helped support consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth last year.

2. A rising homeownership rate
More homeowners are now benefiting from this price appreciation as ownership has finally started to show perceptible increases from historical lows. In the last three months of 2017 the homeownership rate rose to 64.2 percent from 63.7 percent  in the same period a year earlier. Even more good news, the elusive millennial first-time buyer showed up late last year. The homeownership rate for millennial households rose to 36 percent at the end of 2017 from 34.7 percent a year earlier.  

3. Contribution to the bottom line
Housing‘s path has been rocky over the past decade. However, in recent years real estate has been a stable contributor to the U.S. economy. New construction accounts for about 3 percent of our economy. Housing services from existing homes add another 12 percent. Housing finished the year on strong footing in 2017. Residential investment grew by 11 percent in the fourth quarter compared to a year earlier, a sign of a healthy housing market that adds to economic growth.

In last night’s address President Trump also outlined his administration’s major policy initiatives.  

Here are three ways we think White House policy will affect the housing market this year:

The Good: Infrastructure Spending
Despite strong homebuyer demand, new construction continues to lag the 50-year post with an average of 1.5 million new homes started this year. Lack of supply and high demand means many buyers are battling rapidly growing prices. Median sale prices were up 6.8 percent in 2017 from a year earlier. In fast-growing metros like Seattle, San Jose, Denver and Orlando, home prices surged by double digits.  

Buyers are having to move farther from job centers to afford a home. Public investment, particularly in transit, is key to connecting farflung but affordable suburbs to urban job centers.   

The Bad: Restrictions on Immigration
President Trump discussed three policy changes to immigration: a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants under the DACA program, an end to the visa lottery, and exchanging a preference for extended family with a merit-based system. Though we applaud amnesty for Dreamers, overall we view the Trump Administration’s proposed policy as more restrictive than current practice and potentially detrimental to the health of the housing market.

Restrictive immigration policies would cut short housing’s recovery because immigration fuels home demand. Immigrants compose over a third of household growth and have been a key source of population increases in rural areas where domestic population has declined. In a 2017 study of 353 cities we showed a high immigrant population is highly correlated with housing wealth.

The Unknown: Tax Reform
A key pillar of President Trump’s economic plan is tax cuts. Right now we view the effect of tax changes on housing as mixed. On the one hand, middle-class families should see some money from the cut this year. At the same time homebuyers in high-tax states will no longer be able to fully deduct state and local taxes.This could lead prices to stagnate or even decline in high-tax states like New York, New Jersey, Illinois and California. It’s too soon to tell what the effect of the Republican tax plan will be on the 2018 market.

President Trump stated in his State of the Union “There has never been a better time to start living the American dream.” Housing is a crucial part of the American dream that can’t be ignored.

The post The State of the Union: What Role Does Housing Play? appeared first on Redfin Real-Time.

Redfin Data Helps Fuel Wealthfront’s Home Buying Guide

0
0
Wealthfront2

Whether you’re thinking about buying your first home or upgrading to something different based on life changes, there can be a lot of unknowns. For some it’s hard to know when and how to start the planning process. For others who are closer to purchase, they might be wondering the impact of buying a home on their other important goals, like retirement.

Wealthfront, the automated financial planning and investing service, aims to answer those tough questions with their new Home Planning Guide, powered by data from Redfin.

No matter where you are in the home buying process, Wealthfront’s guide helps get you focused on the most important things to think about. For those just starting to think about a home, the guide helps you start preparing by breaking down the benefits of owning a home, as well as how to think about investing your savings when a purchase is more than five years away.

For those a within five years of a purchase, the guide spells out the all-in costs of owning home by location, using national and city-level data from Redfin. The guide also helps you compare owning to renting based on Redfin data that looks at both scenarios over a 10-year horizon. For those concerned that buying a home might get them off track of their other goals, Wealthfront helps you understand the tradeoffs, such how the size and cost of a home will affect your desired retirement lifestyle.

If you have more immediate needs and plan to make a purchase within the year, the guide dives into what it takes to qualify for a mortgage and what you should consider for a down payment. The guide also highlights the true costs of owning a home, so you can understand your total, one-time closing costs and what you’ll need all-in on a monthly basis. Because costs vary by market, Wealthfront uses data from Redfin that looks at national averages, as well as averages across New York City, Chicago and San Francisco. Of course, buying and selling a home with Redfin helps reduce closing costs. Because Redfin charges less than the typical commission, your total brokerage fee with Redfin is reduced, putting more money in your pocket to help decorate your new place.

Wealthfront developed the Home Planning Guide in conjunction with the launch of the home planning feature in Path, their automated financial planning solution. Like the guide, Path also uses Redfin data to help Wealthfront clients understand their total affordability and personalize their plan based on location and other parameters. Wealthfront is committed to helping their clients fully optimize and automate their finances, and their home planning experience and guide are important additions to helping people have a more holistic understanding of owning a home.

The post Redfin Data Helps Fuel Wealthfront’s Home Buying Guide appeared first on Redfin Real-Time.

Wildfires Threaten $1.5 Trillion Worth of Homes in the United States

0
0
  • 7.7 percent of U.S. housing value–over $1.5 trillion worth of homes–is at risk of wildfire damage in 2018 and beyond.
  • The counties that are most at risk are among the country’s most expensive housing markets and are already plagued by ongoing inventory shortages.

  • Data shows that wildfires have become more damaging. For example, in 2017 about 9.8 million acres of land in the U.S. burned from wildfires. In 2016 it was 5.4 million acres of land. 2017 ranked higher in number of acres burned compared to the 10-year average.

  • Redfin agents report that homebuyers in California’s recent wildfire zones are mostly undeterred and plan to stay in the area.

  • Recent mudslides in California are the latest wildfire-related disaster to plague high-risk counties.


Wildfires have roared across the western United States for years, but a recent uptick in the frequency and intensity of the fires* has put some of the most desirable homes at risk. While only representing four percent of U.S. properties, the homes at moderate-to-severe risk of wildfires tend to also be in some of the country’s most coveted and expensive counties. The homes at risk account for 7.7 percent or $1.5 trillion, a disproportionately large portion of U.S. housing value. But local real estate agents say the wildfire risk is not deterring homebuyers from continuing to put down roots in these communities.

“People who are still in shock from losing their homes and possessions from the October fires are greeting one another at open houses while comparing notes on the hotels or rentals where they are temporary living,” said Redfin Santa Rosa agent Starling Scholz. “People view wildfire risk as a price of living in California that’s well worth the rewards: beautiful weather, nature and well-paying jobs.”

Below are the top 10 counties for risk of wildfire destruction, ranked according to the estimated total value of homes at risk. To be considered, there had to have been at least five major fires recorded by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in the county since 1960. Los Angeles, Orange and Santa Clara counties top the list, which is dominated by California counties. The only non-California counties to make the list were Harris and Dallas counties in Texas and Clark county in Nevada. California is so predominant in the ranking not only because of the state’s high frequency of wildfires, but also because of its desirable, expensive housing markets. If demand for homes in these places doesn’t subside, we’re likely to see inventory shortages and affordability crises in these places will likely continue as wildfires inevitably destroy more homes each year.

Top 10 U.S. Counties for Fire Risk

Rank County Major Fires in County since 1960 (FEMA) Estimated Median Home Value in County (Census data) Estimated Total Value of Homes in County (Census data, in billions) # of Homes at Risk in County (Census data) Change in Homes for Sale (December 2016-December 2017)
1 Los Angeles County, CA 42 $465,000 $918.1 1,499,576 -25.6%
2 Orange County, CA 14 $584,200 $391.5 581,506 -25.0%
3 Santa Clara County, CA 6 $752,400 $327.9 354,255 -56.7%
4 San Diego County, CA 25 $454,600 $316.5 581,635 -19.2%
5 Harris County, TX 6 $145,600 $185.6 837,912 -5.6%
6 Riverside County, CA 27 $276,300 $140.8 454,924 -21.1%
7 San Bernardino County, CA 28 $256,000 $106.1 365,576 -21.6%
8 Dallas County, TX 7 $138,600 $103.7 452,284 -8.0%
9 Ventura County, CA 18 $481,400 $93.4 170,877 -22.4%
10 Clark County, NV 5 $186,700 $88.6 384,329 -26.1%

 

“Restrictive zoning and underbuilding make wildfires  even more damaging for homeowners and renters in affected areas. Despite strong demand and severe inventory shortages, California has built the fewest number of homes per new resident of any state, with just one unit for every four new residents, compared to one new unit for every 1.8 new residents nationally,” said Redfin chief economist Nela Richardson. “When people whose homes just burned down are jumping back into bidding wars to buy new homes in the same area, you know wildfires alone won’t cool these competitive markets. However, California’s chronic lack of homes and eroding affordability make recovering from a natural disaster much more challenging than in states like Texas with more adequate housing supply.“

Redfin Santa Barbara agent John Venti has noticed that while wildfires certainly pose a risk to homes, California’s overall affordability is a bigger concern for homebuyers.

“I was touring with clients last month, and in the 15 minutes it took to see the home, our cars were completely covered in ash from nearby wildfires,” said Venti. “The homebuyers were not fazed. If anything, people are more often deterred from buying homes in this area by high gas prices and high taxes than wildfires.”

For the people who are still interested in buying homes in wildfire zones, Venti has some advice.

“It’s important to get a fire insurance quote before falling in love with a home,” he said. “We’ve had people and properties receive exorbitantly high quotes for fire insurance. Others were flat-out denied coverage because the home was too risky or the buyer had a large outstanding claim from a previous fire. California FAIR Plan property insurance may be able to provide insurance for homes that have been denied coverage.”

Curious about wildfires in your state? Click here to see a data visualization of wildfire likelihood and the value of the housing markets at risk.

Methodology

Using data from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) on the prevalence of fires in each county since 1960, we estimated the relative risk of fires by county across the United States. Data on the annual number of acres burned from wildfires are available from the National Interagency Fire Center. County-level estimates on the number of households, total and median value of all owner-occupied homes are from the American Community Survey for 2016 (5-year estimates). The rankings were based on the total value of homes in a county that were also at risk of wildfires affording to FEMA data. Places that had higher total home value ranked higher.

*Climate research from the Union of Concerned Scientists suggests that wildfires are increasing and wildfire season is getting longer in the Western U.S. because of increasing temperatures. The theory is that with global temperatures rising, mountain snow melts earlier in the season and forests stay drier for longer. Dry forests are more susceptible to burning, and high winds help the fires travel across the state. If temperatures in the western U.S. increase at the rate scientists are expecting in the next 20 to 30 years, there’s an even larger window of time for wildfires to spark and spread each year.

 

The post Wildfires Threaten $1.5 Trillion Worth of Homes in the United States appeared first on Redfin Real-Time.

Redfin Survey: 15% of Respondents Sold Their Home or Did Not Buy Last Year Because of Worry Over Immigration Policies

0
0

From November 1 to December 6, 2017, Redfin commissioned a survey of 4,270 U.S. residents in 14 metropolitan areas who bought or sold a home in the past year, attempted to do so, or planned to do so soon. The goal was to better understand the perspectives and experiences of people who were recently in the market to buy or sell a home.

This is the first in a series of three reports Redfin will issue based on the survey, focusing on results related to politics and society. Subsequent reports will focus on results about the economy, affordable housing and technology’s effect on the way people buy and sell homes.

Three major findings:

  • 15% of respondents sold their home or did not buy because of worry over immigration policies.
  • 18% of millennials who bought a home in the last year now live in the political minority in their new community.
  • 37% of people of color felt they may have been discriminated against when trying to buy a home, down from 43% in May.

15% of respondents sold their home or did not buy because of restrictive immigration policies and proposals.

Eight percent of respondents said they sold their home in the last year because they were worried they wouldn’t be able to stay or work in the U.S. much longer. Seven percent did not purchase a home for the same reason.

immigration policy chart

“I’ve seen buyers finally get offers accepted, only to cancel the contracts,” said Gabriella Stwart, a Redfin agent in Bellevue, Washington. “We’re having conversations with professionals working at large companies who are eager to sell or not buying because their visas are expiring or close to it and might not be extended.”

The survey results reveal that housing markets in certain parts of the country are more likely to be affected by immigration policy. Among respondents in the Los Angeles area, 32.7 percent said they sold or did not buy a home because they were worried they wouldn’t be able to work or stay in the country much longer. In Baltimore, 18.5 percent said the same, as well as 16.8 percent in San Francisco.

18% of millennials who bought a home moved to a community where they were the political minority.

Eighteen percent of millennials who bought a home in the last year said they were among the political minority in their new community, 5 percentage points higher than Generation X and 12 points higher than Baby Boomers.

survey results: moved to political minority / immigration policies

These results suggest that millennials may be more tolerant of political diversity. Younger people are also less likely than other age groups to be married with children, making cross country moves easier.

Forty-seven percent of millennials who bought a home last year said their employer lets them work remotely most of the time, 6 points higher than Gen X and 16 points higher than Baby Boomers. Asked how their employer’s remote work policy affected their decision on where to move, these millennial buyers most commonly said they prioritized better weather (19%), more affordable homes (17.8%) and lower taxes (16.9%).

“Red states like Arizona and Texas where we’re seeing high levels of incoming migration from the coasts may turn purple someday soon, thanks in part to millennials on the move,” said Nela Richardson, Redfin chief economist. “As young people leave their comfort zones in search of affordable housing, the result will be a less politically polarized country over time.”  

37% of people of color felt they may have been discriminated against when trying to buy a home, down from 43% in May.

Fewer people of color who purchased a home, or tried to do so, said they felt that a seller was less eager to work with them because of race than in our May 2017 survey. In our year-end survey, 37 percent of African American, Arab American, East/South Asian American, Latino/Latina, and Native American respondents who bought or tried to buy a home in the last year said they felt that sellers or their agents were less eager or may have been less eager to work with them because of their ethnicity or race, compared to 43 percent in May.

“The two data points we have about the perception of discrimination in housing reveal just a snapshot of what amounts to a short moment in our country’s long history of racial inequality in housing, and change in the actual incidence of such discrimination is likely to happen only slowly over many years,” said Nela Richardson, Redfin chief economist. “It’s more likely that that the trend we see in this snapshot reveals an aberration last year around the contentious Presidential election, when racial tensions and anxiety about discrimination were heightened. However, when it comes to where people can live, work and go to school, the idea that more than a third of people of color buying a home still don’t believe that their money is as good as anyone else’s is a massive problem.”

Methodology

Redfin contracted SurveyGizmo to field a study between November 1st and December 6th, 2017 of 4270 people from the general population who indicated they had bought or sold a home in the past year, tried to buy or sell a home in the past year or plan to do so this year. The survey targeted 14 major metro areas (Austin, Baltimore, Boston, Chicago, Dallas-Fort Worth, Denver, Los Angeles, Phoenix, Portland, Sacramento, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle and Washington, D.C.

Respondents consisted of those who successfully bought or sold in the past 12 months, tried to buy and/or sell in the past 12 months or are planning to buy and/or sell in the next 12 months.

Comparisons were made using results from similarly commissioned surveys conducted by SurveyGizmo in May 2017 and December 2016, and by SurveyMonkey in July 2016 and December 2015.

For more information about the survey and its findings, contact Redfin Journalist Services at  press@redfin.com.

The post Redfin Survey: 15% of Respondents Sold Their Home or Did Not Buy Last Year Because of Worry Over Immigration Policies appeared first on Redfin Real-Time.

Affordable Inland Metros Drew People from San Francisco, New York and Los Angeles

0
0

The fourth quarter of 2017 saw people in expensive, high-tax coastal markets like San Francisco, New York, Los Angeles, search for homes in metros like Sacramento, Phoenix,  Las Vegas, and Nashville where taxes are lower and housing is more affordable. This is a continuation of a trend we saw throughout the past year, but what was new last quarter was that the topic of taxes and tax reform came in conversations Redfin agents had with people looking to move away from the aforementioned coastal markets and into fast-growing mid-tier metros. We expect that in 2018, this migration pattern will intensify as tax reform becomes a reality and more people choose to relocate in search of a lower cost of living. Our migration analysis is based on a sample of more than 1 million Redfin.com users searching for homes across 75 metro areas from October through December 2017.

Among the 22 percent of Redfin.com home searchers who looked to move to another metro area in the fourth quarter, the following key trends emerge:

  • San Francisco, New York, Los Angeles, Washington, D.C. and Chicago posted the highest net outflows.  
  • Fast-growing, mid-tier metros in the Sunbelt, including Phoenix and Las Vegas, and the South, including Atlanta and Nashville, had the highest net inflows.
  • Seattle saw more users looking to leave than to move to the area for the first time since we began tracking this data at the beginning of 2017.

Moving Out – Metros with the Highest Net Outflow of Users

Tax reform limiting homeowners’ combined property tax and SALT deduction that Congress was proposing, debating and signing into law at the end of 2017 may have begun to influence migration patterns as seen in users’ search behavior in the fourth quarter. Tax savings are just one factor in people’s decisions to move, but they may play a larger role in the pursuit of affordability going forward.  

“People leaving coastal hubs in search of affordability has been a consistent trend for the last five years,” said Redfin chief economist Nela Richardson. “Late last year there was a twist. Many of the popular migration paths that we saw Redfin.com users exploring yielded tax benefits along with increased affordability. We expect these trends to continue and will be monitoring them closely in 2018.”

By comparing annual property, state and local tax burdens from the 2016 Tax Rates and Tax Burdens in the District of Columbia: A Nationwide Comparison report, we’re able to estimate what a move from one metro to another might entail from a tax perspective. For example, 18.2 percent of all Redfin.com searches for homes in Las Vegas in the fourth quarter came from Los Angeles; a family earning $150,000 who made this move could save $7,785 in taxes and would likely pay less for a similar home, given that the typical home in Las Vegas costs about $333,000 less than in Los Angeles. Similarly, the 9 percent of New Yorkers looking to leave who considered Atlanta might save $5,809 in taxes and benefit from around $161,000 lower median home sale price.

“Lower taxes and more affordable housing have historically drawn Californians away from the coast to places like Nevada and Arizona,” said Heidi Ludwig, a Redfin Agent in Hermosa Beach. “The recent changes in tax law have been coming up in my conversations with prospective home sellers. Last year, several of my home-selling clients followed their employer, Toyota, to its new facility in Plano, Texas. I expect to see more people move in the same direction this year, but for different reasons including taxes and overall affordability.”

Phoenix migration

Seattle showed a negative net outflow in the fourth quarter, a first since we began tracking migration patterns at the beginning of 2017. Among local users who were looking to leave, 10.6 percent were eyeing Los Angeles, followed by Bellingham, Wash., Portland and Phoenix, each of which captured at least 8 percent of Seattleites looking to leave.

Table: Top 10 Metros by Net Outflow of Users and Their Top Destinations
Rank Metro* Net Outflow Portion of Local Users Searching Elsewhere Top Destination Top Out-of-State Destination
1 San Francisco, CA -15,489 19.4% Sacramento, CA Seattle, WA
2 New York, NY -12,532 33.4% Boston, MA Boston, MA
3 Los Angeles, CA -11,326 15.5% San Diego, CA Las Vegas, NV
4 Washington, DC -3,892 10.2% Philadelphia, PA Philadelphia, PA
5 Chicago, IL -1,772 8.9% Los Angeles, CA Los Angeles, CA
6 Houston, TX -321 24.9% Austin, TX Los Angeles, CA
7 Seattle, WA -258 10.4% Los Angeles, CA Los Angeles, CA
8 Detroit, MI -117 25.2% Chicago, IL Chicago, IL
9 Eugene, OR -83 33.1% Portland, OR Seattle, WA
10 Omaha, NE -50 29.6% Las Vegas, NV Las Vegas, NV
*Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users in Q4 2017
†Among the one million users sampled for this analysis only

Moving In – Metros with the Highest Net Inflow of Users

Metros in the Sun Belt (Phoenix and Las Vegas) and the South (Atlanta, Dallas, Nashville) were top destinations for home searches originating outside the local area, as we saw throughout 2017. These destination metros are noted for low state and local taxes compared the national average as well as lower median property taxes. San Francisco, Los Angeles and New York were the most common origins among users looking to relocate to these top destinations.

Over 43 percent of all searches for homes in the Las Vegas metro came from outside the area, drawing more out-of-towner attention than any other location in the analysis.

Las Vegas Migration

Table: Top 10 Metros by Net Inflow of Users and Their Top Origins
Rank Metro* Net Inflow Portion of Searches from Users Outside the Metro Top Origin Top Out-of-State Origin
1 Sacramento, CA 4,101 37.7% San Francisco, CA Seattle, WA
2 Phoenix, AZ 3,153 30.1% Los Angeles, CA Los Angeles, CA
3 Las Vegas, NV 3,093 43.4% Los Angeles, CA Los Angeles, CA
4 San Diego, CA 3,043 26.4% Los Angeles, CA Seattle, WA
5 Atlanta, GA 2,700 25.9% New York, NY New York, NY
6 Portland, OR 2,287 16.4% San Francisco, CA San Francisco, CA
7 Dallas, TX 1,788 22.0% Los Angeles, CA Los Angeles, CA
8 Nashville, TN 1,582 32.4% New York, NY New York, NY
9 Boston, MA 1,574 12.6% New York, NY New York, NY
10 Austin, TX 1,490 24.8% San Francisco, CA San Francisco, CA
*Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users in Q4 2017
†Among the one million users sampled for this analysis only

Staying Put

Across the 75 metro areas in our analysis, 78 percent of Redfin.com users looked for homes within their current metro. As we saw throughout 2017, Chicago, Boston, Washington, D,C. and Seattle metro areas continued to inspire loyalty with about nine of 10 users searching for homes in their local area.

Throughout all of 2017, less than 14 percent of users in Raleigh, Portland, Dallas, Atlanta, Washington D.C., Nashville, Chicago and Seattle looked to relocate.

staying put migration report

As factors influencing people’s decisions regarding where to live evolve, Redfin search data reveals emerging migration patterns with home seekers shifting their search to lower-cost, second-tier markets and away from expensive coastal cities. We will continue to track migration using Redfin’s proprietary user dataset each quarter.

If you’d like more information about this analysis or its underlying data, please email press@redfin.com.

Methodology

Redfin analyzed a sample of more than 1 million Redfin.com users searching for homes across 75 metro areas from October through December. Users must have viewed at least 10 listings during the quarter. We also excluded locations that in aggregate represented less than 20 percent of a user’s searches. We determined the home metro by mapping the user’s IP address of the most common location they searched from. If a user was searching in more than one metro, we accounted for the share of searches in each metro. Combined Statistical Areas (as defined here) must have had at least 500 users either searching from or in that metro during the first quarter.

It’s worth noting that net inflow and outflow data does not account for Redfin’s market share or the population of metro areas. In metros where Redfin has a larger number of website visitors, we may have a higher volume of inbound and outbound searches than in metros that are smaller or where Redfin has a smaller user base. The U.S. Census Bureau measures net migration flows, which is a common practice when analyzing migratory patterns.

The post Affordable Inland Metros Drew People from San Francisco, New York and Los Angeles appeared first on Redfin Real-Time.

Viewing all 443 articles
Browse latest View live




Latest Images